Match Analysis: Southampton vs Stoke City – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-08-23
- Time: 2:00 PM UTC
- Location: St. Mary's Stadium
Game Overview
Southampton hosts Stoke City in an English Championship Round 3 match at St. Mary's Stadium. Southampton are unbeaten in their last six clashes, while Stoke have shown strong home and away form this season.
Key Factors to Consider
- Southampton has 2 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss in recent games with 7 goals scored in the last 5 matches. Stoke City is in good form, with a commanding 3-0 win over Sheffield Wednesday and a 3-1 victory against Derby recently.
- Across 23 recorded meetings, Southampton has 9 wins, Stoke City 8 wins, and 6 draws. Neither team has drawn in the last 3 encounters. Southampton are unbeaten in 6 matches against Stoke.
- Southampton faces absences with James Bree (leg) and William Smallbone (calf) out until early September, impacting squad depth.
- Southampton benefits from home advantage playing at St. Mary's Stadium. Stoke City faces travel and less favorable away conditions.
- Southampton aims to remain unbeaten and maintain strong home form early in the Championship. Stoke looks to build on convincing recent wins and challenge on the road.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Southampton: -145, Stoke City: 355, Draw: 270 | Southampton | β β β β β 72% |
Spread | Southampton: -0.75 -108, Stoke City: 75 -112 | Southampton -0.75 | β β β ββ 68% |
Over/under | Over 2.5: -108, Under 2.5: -112 | Over 2.5 | β β β ββ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Southampton -2% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Over 2.5 16% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Over 2.5 at 16% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 16.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Southampton to win on the moneyline, cover the -0.75 goal spread, and the total goals to go over 2.5.
Predicted Score: 2-1