Match Analysis: Sheffield United vs Millwall – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-08-23
- Time: 2:00 PM UTC
- Location: Bramall Lane, Sheffield, England
Game Overview
Sheffield United hosts Millwall in an EFL Championship clash at Bramall Lane. Sheffield United sits close to the relegation zone (23rd), while Millwall holds a mid-table position (11th), indicating a motivation gap and possible home advantage impact.
Key Factors to Consider
- Sheffield United's recent form shows 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses in their last 5 with a solid defensive record conceding 0.6 goals per match. Millwall has won 3, lost 2 in their last 5 but scores fewer goals (0.6 per game) and concedes more (1.2 per game). Sheffield United has an 80% Asian Handicap win rate recently compared to Millwall's 40%.
- The two teams have an evenly matched history with 24 meetings since 2003 showing 10 wins each and 4 draws. Recent encounters indicate Sheffield United had a stronger recent dominance winning 3 of the last 5 since 2022. Last season, Sheffield United won both fixtures against Millwall.
- No significant injury news affecting key players on either side was reported, indicating both teams likely field near full-strength squads.
- Home advantage favors Sheffield United notably at Bramall Lane, a stadium where they boast the better defensive record and where Millwall tends to skew more defensive with fewer goals scored overall.
- Sheffield United, precariously placed at 23rd, is highly motivated to secure points to avoid relegation troubles. Millwall's comfortable mid-table standing may lessen urgency for maximum points.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Home: -105, Draw: 225, Away: 280 | Home | β β β β β 72% |
Spread | Home -0.5: 102, Away +50: -122 | Home -0.5 | β β β ββ 65% |
Over/under | Over 2.25: -105, Under 2.25: -115 | Under 2.25 | β β β ββ 68% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Sheffield United 113% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 2.25 12% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Sheffield United at 113% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 40.3% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Given Sheffield United's better form defensively, stronger motivation due to relegation danger, and the home venue advantage, a home win is the most value positive bet despite modestly priced American odds.
Predicted Score: 1-0