Match Analysis: Miami Marlins vs St. Louis Cardinals – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-08-20
- Time: 10:41 PM UTC
- Location: loanDepot park, Miami, Florida
Game Overview
The Miami Marlins will host the St. Louis Cardinals at loanDepot park. Both teams are mid-standings with similar season records, but recent form and pitching matchup provide nuanced edges. The game is projected to be competitive with moderate run scoring around the 8.5 total line.
Key Factors to Consider
- The Marlins have struggled recently with just 2 wins in their last 10 games and inconsistent bullpen performance. The Cardinals have a slightly better record (63-64) and have performed well on the road recently. Miami pitches Sandy Alcantara (6-11, 6.31 ERA) against Cardinals' Andre Pallante (6-10, 5.04 ERA), both underperforming this season.
- The Cardinals have historically dominated with a 47-27 record versus Miami, including 24 wins on the road. However, Miami's last win in the H2H was a 10-3 blowout, while the most recent game was a 7-6 Cardinals victory. Average runs per game are close: Miami 4.27 at home, Cardinals 4.71 on road.
- No major injury reports impacting starting pitchers or key players for either side have been noted, indicating near full-strength rosters.
- Home field at loanDepot Park slightly favors Marlins, but weather and other external conditions are neutral with no impact on play.
- Both teams seek to improve standings and break any losing streaks; marginally more urgency for Marlins due to weaker recent form.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Miami Marlins: -118, St. Louis Cardinals: 100 | Miami Marlins | β β β ββ 60% |
Spread | Miami Marlins -1.5: -205, St. Louis Cardinals +1.5: 172 | St. Louis Cardinals +1.5 | β β β ββ 67% |
Over/under | Over 8.5: -104, Under 8.5: -118 | Under 8.5 | β β β ββ 55% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Miami Marlins -0% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 8.5 2% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 8.5 at 2% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 1.9% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Moneyline: Miami Marlins win; Spread: Cardinals +1.5; Over/Under: Under 8.5 runs
Predicted Score: Miami Marlins 4 – 3 St. Louis Cardinals