Match Analysis: Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-08-19
- Time: 11:10 PM UTC
- Location: Fenway Park, Boston, Massachusetts
Game Overview
The Boston Red Sox host the Baltimore Orioles in a pivotal AL East matchup at Fenway Park. The Red Sox are slight favorites despite recent struggles, while the Orioles seek to capitalize on momentum from a previous victory over Boston. This game is key for Boston to maintain their position in the division and for Baltimore to improve their sub-.500 record.
Key Factors to Consider
- Boston holds a 68-58 record with some recent inconsistency, including splitting their last six games and a bullpen showing vulnerability. Baltimore sits at 58-67 with offensive struggles but holds some recent positive momentum against the Red Sox.
- Historically, Boston dominates with 97 wins to Baltimore's 70. Boston averages 5.32 runs per game in these matchups versus Baltimore's 4.44. However, Baltimore won the last meeting 6-3 on August 18, 2025, adding intrigue.
- No major injuries reported to starting pitchers or key offensive players for either team that would significantly impact the game.
- Game played at Fenway Park gives Boston a strong home field advantage with favorable dimensions for their lineup. Weather conditions expected to be typical for August in Boston with no significant impact forecast.
- Boston motivated to secure a win to hold onto division standing prior to a lengthy road trip. Baltimore motivated to build on recent success and improve overall season record.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Boston Red Sox -138, Baltimore Orioles +125 | Boston Red Sox | β β β ββ 68% |
Spread | Boston Red Sox -1.5 +147, Baltimore Orioles +1.5 -167 | Boston Red Sox -1.5 | β β β ββ 62% |
Over/under | Over 9.5 -115, Under 9.5 -105 | Over 9.5 | β β β ββ 58% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Boston Red Sox 3% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Over 9.5 3% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Boston Red Sox at 3% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 4.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Boston Red Sox to win straight up (moneyline), cover the -1.5 run line, and the game to go over 9.5 runs.
Predicted Score: Boston Red Sox 6 – 4 Baltimore Orioles