Match Analysis: Juventude vs Vasco da Gama - Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-08-20
- Time: 10:00 PM UTC
- Location: Estádio Alfredo Jaconi, Caxias do Sul, Brazil
Game Overview
Juventude hosts Vasco da Gama in a Serie A matchup where both teams struggle near the relegation zone. Vasco is slightly favored given better recent form and home/away trends.
Key Factors to Consider
- Vasco da Gama (14th place, 13 points) has a slightly better recent form (WLLWL) than Juventude (17th place, 11 points, LDLLW). Both teams are defensively weak, with Juventude conceding 24 goals in 12 games and Vasco 18 in 13 games.
- Historically, Juventude has an edge at home, winning 3 of last 6 home H2H matches with Vasco, who won only once. Most common recent result is 1-1 draw. Goal difference favors Juventude 10-4 at home in recent meetings.
- No specific injury reports available from recent data; assume full squads or minor absences for both.
- Match is played at Juventude's home ground, Estádio Alfredo Jaconi, which typically gives them moderate home advantage.
- Both clubs are fighting relegation; slightly higher motivation expected from Juventude at home to secure vital points.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Juventude: +205, Vasco da Gama: +137, Draw: +215 | Vasco da Gama | ★★★☆☆ 62% |
| Spread | Juventude +25: -125, Vasco da Gama -0.25: +105 | Vasco da Gama -0.25 | ★★★☆☆ 58% |
| Over/under | Over 2.25: -102, Under 2.25: -118 | Under 2.25 | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Vasco da Gama 14% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2.25 15% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.25 at 15% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 17.2% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Vasco da Gama to win on the moneyline, with an expectation of a low-scoring competitive match
Predicted Score: 0-1
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