Match Analysis: Cincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee Brewers – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-08-17
- Time: 5:41 PM UTC
- Location: Great American Ball Park, Cincinnati, Ohio
Game Overview
Milwaukee Brewers (78-44) visit Cincinnati Reds (64-60) in a pivotal NL Central matchup. Brewers have been on a strong winning streak since July 30, while Reds are slightly behind in standings but playing at home with solid starting pitching from Andrew Abbott.
Key Factors to Consider
- Milwaukee Brewers hold a superior 78-44 record versus Cincinnati’s 64-60. Brewers' offense is potent with a .260 batting average and a powerful lineup led by Jackson Chourio, Brice Turang, and Christian Yelich. Cincinnati has a respectable offense but recent form shows injuries and defensive lapses with 3 errors in the last game. Pitching ERA favors Abbott (2.41) over Brewers' Quintana (3.44 ERA).
- Recent series favored Brewers as they won first two games against Reds in this series, including a late comeback win. Historically, Quintana (Brewers) has a 2.71 ERA against Reds, but Abbott has outperformed at home with consistent starts.
- Milwaukee missing some depth players (e.g., injuries to C. Thomas, G. Mitchell, J. Bauers), but key starters remain healthy. Reds have minor bullpen issues as seen in blown save recently, but starters healthy with Abbott on mound.
- Great American Ball Park is hitter-friendly but Reds’ home advantage is tempered by Brewers’ strong current form. Weather and game-time conditions appear neutral without adverse impact.
- Milwaukee is pushing to maintain divisional lead and extend current winning streak, providing strong motivation. Reds are fighting to close gap in NL Central and capitalize on home field, adding urgency but with lesser momentum.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | -106 | Milwaukee Brewers | ★★★★☆ 72% |
Spread | Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 146 | Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 | ★★★☆☆ 68% |
Over/under | Under 9.5 -122 | Under 9.5 | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Milwaukee Brewers 9% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 9.5 13% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 9.5 at 13% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 15.6% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Milwaukee Brewers moneyline
Predicted Score: Brewers 5 – Reds 3