Match Analysis: Newcastle United vs Arsenal – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-28
- Time: 3:30 PM UTC
- Location: St James' Park, Newcastle upon Tyne, England
Game Overview
Newcastle United, ranked 13th, host Arsenal, who are 2nd in the Premier League standings, at St James' Park. Newcastle have struggled offensively this season, scoring only six goals across five matches and failing to find the net in five of their last seven league games. Conversely, Arsenal, chasing the title, have been solid but dropped points recently, drawing 1-1 with Manchester City. Arsenal have a strong away record this season with just one loss in 16 away league matches. Newcastle remain defensively resilient, boasting four clean sheets and the fewest shots faced after five rounds.
Key Factors to Consider
- Newcastle have lacked offensive output this season, scoring infrequently but maintaining a strong defense with four league clean sheets. Arsenal have consistently performed well, currently second in the table with 10 points from five matches, and have a solid away record (W8, D7, L1) but recently dropped points against Manchester City. Newcastle's attack issues persist partly due to the loss of forward Alexander Isak.
- Historically, Arsenal dominate the head-to-head with 23 wins, while Newcastle have won 7 times and there have been 3 draws. In the last five encounters, matches have been closely contested with Arsenal narrowly winning friendlies and league matches, but Newcastle claimed victories in Carabao Cup meetings and a Premier League fixture this season.
- No specific injury updates were available from the sources, but Newcastle's attacking woes suggest missing key forwards including Alexander Isak. Arsenal appear to have a fit squad with key contributors active.
- The match is played at Newcastle's home ground, St James' Park, known for its passionate support and atmosphere, which could boost Newcastle's motivation. Arsenal faces pressure to close the five-point gap to league leaders Liverpool, creating strong motivation to secure an away win.
- Arsenal needs to maintain pressure near the top of the table and improve on dropped points, motivating them to perform strongly. Newcastle aims to overcome offensive struggles and improve their position from 13th, especially at home where St James' Park offers home advantage.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Arsenal: 110, Newcastle United: 246, Draw: 230 | Arsenal win | β β β β β 75% |
| Spread | Arsenal -0.5: 107, Newcastle United +50: -141 | Arsenal -0.5 | β β β β β 70% |
| Over/under | Over 2.5: 107, Under 2.5: -143 | Under 2.5 goals | β β β ββ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Arsenal 9% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2.5 2% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Arsenal at 9% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 8.4% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Arsenal is favored to win due to superior form, league position, and historic dominance. However, Newcastle's home resilience and defensive solidity mean the match could be close, with a likely Arsenal victory by a narrow margin.
Predicted Score: Arsenal 2 – 1 Newcastle United