Match Analysis: Aston Villa vs Fulham – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-28
- Time: 1:00 PM UTC
- Location: Villa Park, Birmingham, England
Game Overview
Aston Villa (18th in EPL) hosts Fulham (8th in EPL) in a Premier League match at Villa Park. Both teams have contrasting league standings with Fulham performing significantly better so far. Villa have struggled offensively with only 1 goal scored and 6 conceded in 5 matches, while Fulham have a stronger attacking and defensive record.
Key Factors to Consider
- Aston Villa has 3 points from 5 games (0-3-2), scoring only 1 goal and conceding 6. Fulham has 8 points (2-2-1), scoring more frequently and showing better defensive stability. Key players include Villaβs defender M. Cash and midfielder B. Kamara and Fulhamβs forward A. Iwobi, who contributed goals and assists.
- Recent H2H fixtures last season featured two matches where Fulham showed competitive performance against Villa. Historically, Fulham has edged the fixture with more favorable outcomes, benefiting from better form and quality.
- No specific injury data found for either side in the current sources, but lineups and fitness need to be confirmed closer to the match date.
- Home advantage for Aston Villa at Villa Park provides some boost, but Villa's poor form and defensive frailty reduce this benefit. Fulhamβs better position in the table indicates higher team morale and quality.
- Aston Villa is under pressure to climb out of the relegation zone, increasing motivation but also pressure. Fulham aims to solidify a top-half standing, likely playing with confidence and looking to exploit Villa's weaknesses.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Aston Villa: 127, Fulham: 230, Draw: 206 | Aston Villa win | β β β ββ 55% |
| Spread | Aston Villa -0.5: 122, Fulham +50: -164 | Fulham +0.5 (Draw or win) | β β β ββ 60% |
| Over/under | Over 2.5: 108, Under 2.5: -143 | Under 2.5 goals | β β β ββ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Aston Villa -0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2.5 2% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 2% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 2.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Fulham is favored to win or at least secure a draw due to superior form, league position, and consistent attacking play. Aston Villaβs defensive issues and lack of goals weaken their chances despite home advantage.
Predicted Score: Aston Villa 1 – 1 Fulham