Match Analysis: Nashville SC vs Houston Dynamo – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-28
- Time: 12:30 AM UTC
- Location: Geodis Park, Nashville, TN
Game Overview
The MLS Round 32 match pits Nashville SC, currently 7th in the Eastern Conference with 50 points and a recent poor patch, against Houston Dynamo, 10th in the Western Conference with 36 points and modest recent form. Nashville SC, powered by top scorer Sam Surridge (21 goals), faces an improving Houston side led by Ezequiel Ponce (10 goals). Nashville has home advantage but has lost 3 of their last 5 matches, while Houston has mixed results including a recent home win.
Key Factors to Consider
- Nashville SC struggles recently with a 1-4 record in the last five matches and a three-match losing streak; offensively strong with 21 goals from Surridge but defensively vulnerable. Houston Dynamo displays streaky form: alternating wins, losses, and a draw in their last five matches; their last match was a 1-0 home win over Portland Timbers, showing resilience.
- Historically, recent encounters slightly favor Houston Dynamo, including a close 2-1 win in October 2022 and a draw in 2020. The teams have exchanged wins, suggesting a competitive match up without clear dominance.
- No major recent injury reports available for either team, indicating likely availability of key players including Surridge and Ponce.
- Home advantage to Nashville at Geodis Park, plus support from home fans. Match kicking off late night UTC (early morning local) which may affect player rhythms similarly for both.
- Nashville SC aims to strengthen playoff positioning and recover from recent form slump. Houston Dynamo, outside playoff spots, motivated to improve standing and avoid further decline.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Nashville SC: -151, Houston Dynamo: 370, Draw: 310 | Nashville SC win | β β β β β 72% |
| Spread | Nashville SC -0.5: -156, Houston Dynamo +50: 117 | Nashville SC -0.5 | β β β ββ 68% |
| Over/under | Over 2.5: -152, Under 2.5: 115 | Over 2.5 goals | β β β ββ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Nashville SC 3% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 2.5 -9% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Nashville SC at 3% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 4.6% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Nashville SC is favored due to home advantage, overall season performance, and offensive strength despite recent form dip. The match is expected to be closely contested given Houston's recent resilience but Nashville's deeper squad quality should prevail.
Predicted Score: 2-1