Match Analysis: Mirassol vs Cruzeiro – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-08-18
- Time: 11:00 PM UTC
- Location: Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia
Game Overview
This Brasileirão Série A match pits 6th-place Mirassol at home against 2nd-place Cruzeiro. Cruzeiro won their previous league meeting this season 2-1 away, showing a slight edge.
Key Factors to Consider
- Cruzeiro sits 2nd in the league, showing stronger recent form and squad depth; Mirassol is mid-table 6th, competitive but less consistent.
- Only one meeting this season, Cruzeiro won 2-1 away, indicating Cruzeiro have a psychological and tactical advantage.
- Mirassol missing Luiz Otavio (injured until late August) and Matheus Sales (injured mid-August); Cruzeiro appear largely healthy with no reported key injuries.
- Match played at Mirassol's home stadium, which might provide some advantage to the home side. No weather or travel concerns noted.
- Cruzeiro chasing a higher table position, likely highly motivated; Mirassol playing for mid-table stability with moderate urgency.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Cruzeiro: 1.3, Mirassol: 2.05, Draw: 2.1 | Cruzeiro | ★★★★☆ 72% |
Spread | Cruzeiro -0.25: 1.08, Mirassol +25: 1.28 | Mirassol +0.25 | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
Over/under | Over 2: 1.4, Under 2: 1.15 | Under 2 goals | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Cruzeiro 50% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 2 29% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Cruzeiro at 50% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 38.1% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Away win (Cruzeiro) on moneyline, home +0.25 on spread with under 2 goals.
Predicted Score: 1-2