Match Analysis: Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-08-16
- Time: 6:21 PM UTC
- Location: Wrigley Field, Chicago, Illinois
Game Overview
The Chicago Cubs host the Pittsburgh Pirates in an MLB matchup where the Cubs, with a significantly better record and stronger season stats, appear favored to win given their home advantage and superior starting pitching.
Key Factors to Consider
- The Cubs are 68-53 this season with a 3.85 ERA pitching staff and strong offensive stats (.251 BA, .320 OBP). The Pirates are 52-71 with a 4.04 ERA and weaker batting average (.232). Cubs have been inconsistent lately but maintain a second-place position in the NL Central.
- Starting pitcher Shota Imanaga of the Cubs has dominated the Pirates in his two career starts with a 3.32 ERA and .201 opponent batting average. The Piratesβ starter Mike Burrows has struggled recently, allowing 10 runs in his last 9.2 innings and holds a 4.66 ERA this season.
- No major injuries reported for either team affecting key starters or core players ahead of the game.
- Game played at Wrigley Field favors Cubs who excel in home conditions; no significant weather or external issues reported that could affect gameplay.
- Cubs are motivated to reclaim form after a recent slump with four losses in five games, aiming to secure their playoff positioning. Pirates have less incentive given their losing record and upcoming weaker schedule.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Cubs -220, Pirates +184 | Chicago Cubs | β β β β β 74% |
Spread | Cubs -1.5 (-111), Pirates +1.5 (-108) | Chicago Cubs -1.5 | β β β β β 70% |
Over/under | Over 9 (-115), Under 9 (-105) | Under 9 | β β β ββ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Chicago Cubs -1% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 9 17% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 9 at 17% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 18% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Chicago Cubs to win outright on the moneyline; Cubs to cover the -1.5 run line; total runs to go under 9.
Predicted Score: Cubs 5 – Pirates 2