Match Analysis: San Jose Earthquakes vs San Diego FC – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-08-17
- Time: 11:00 PM UTC
- Location: PayPal Park, San Jose, CA
Game Overview
San Diego FC travels to face San Jose Earthquakes in an important Western Conference MLS clash. San Diego is among the top teams with strong recent form and a solid defensive record, while San Jose has underperformed this season with defensive issues but decent expected goals numbers.
Key Factors to Consider
- San Diego FC holds a superior record (15-4-7) and ranks 3rd in MLS with 49 points, showing solid defense with a 70.4% save rate. San Jose Earthquakes (8-8-10) have struggled defensively, allowing 45 goals, and earn only 1.23 points per match, despite leading the league in expected goals (49.9).
- Recent direct matchups favor San Diego with better class and form, as San Jose ended a poor streak with a win against a weakened opponent but lacks consistency. Historical head-to-head data points to San Diego's edge especially away from home.
- No significant injury concerns reported for either side concerning starting goalkeepers Daniel (SJ) and C.J. dos Santos (SD), ensuring stability in goal.
- The match takes place at San Jose's PayPal Park, which offers home advantage, but San Diegoβs solid road form compensates. Weather and pitch conditions expected to be normal.
- San Diego FC is highly motivated to maintain their top Western Conference position and continue their winning streak; San Jose aims to improve their inconsistent form but lacks momentum.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | San Diego FC: +150, San Jose Earthquakes: +149, Draw: +285 | San Diego FC | β β β β β 72% |
Spread | San Diego FC +50: -189, San Jose Earthquakes -0.5: +141 | San Diego FC +0.5 | β β β ββ 68% |
Over/under | Over 3.5: +102, Under 3.5: -135 | Under 3.5 goals | β β β ββ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | San Diego FC 38% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 3.5 8% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: San Diego FC at 38% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 25% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
San Diego FC to win on the moneyline
Predicted Score: 1-2