Match Analysis: Colorado Rockies vs Arizona Diamondbacks – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-08-16
- Time: 12:41 AM UTC
- Location: Coors Field, Denver, CO
Game Overview
The Arizona Diamondbacks (60-62) face off against the Colorado Rockies (32-89) at Coors Field. Arizona leads the season series and won the previous game decisively, 8-2. Colorado is one of the worst teams this season, struggling both offensively and especially on the mound, while Arizona has a stronger lineup and more consistent pitching. The matchup heavily favors Arizona given starting pitching, recent form, and historical head-to-head performance.
Key Factors to Consider
- Arizona has a moderate winning record and is completing a three-game winning streak entering this game. They bat above .240 and have a more reliable pitching staff, as opposed to Colorado's league-worst 32-89 record and a very high team ERA (6.02). Colorado's starting pitcher Tanner Gordon holds an 8.37 ERA and has struggled severely, while Arizona's Brandon Pfaadt maintains a 5.03 ERA and winning record.
- Arizona leads the all-time series 90-70, including 39 wins on the road. In their last encounter on August 15, Arizona routed Colorado 8-2. Average runs per game favor Arizona (5.99) over Colorado (5.08), and Arizona has historically performed well when favored.
- No major injuries reported that would significantly impact either team's lineup or pitching for this matchup based on latest data.
- Coors Field is a hitter-friendly park with high altitude, contributing to higher scoring games on average. This favors offenses but Colorado's pitching woes raise the likelihood of a high-scoring game heavily favoring the Diamondbacks.
- Colorado needs to end a home losing streak and improve in front of their fans, but recent form indicates continued struggles. Arizona looks to build on momentum and solidify their standing with playoff positioning motivation.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Arizona -186, Colorado +156 | Arizona Diamondbacks | β β β β β 78% |
Spread | Arizona -1.5 -128, Colorado +1.5 +106 | Arizona Diamondbacks -1.5 | β β β β β 72% |
Over/under | Over 11.5 -114, Under 11.5 -106 | Over 11.5 Runs | β β β β β 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Arizona Diamondbacks -3% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Over 11.5 22% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Over 11.5 at 22% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 25.1% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Arizona Diamondbacks to win on the moneyline, cover the -1.5 run line, and the game to go over 11.5 total runs.
Predicted Score: Arizona Diamondbacks 8, Colorado Rockies 4