Match Analysis: Nice vs AS Roma – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-24
- Time: 7:00 PM UTC
- Location: Allianz Riviera, Nice, France
Game Overview
The UEFA Europa League match between Nice and AS Roma takes place at Allianz Riviera in Nice, France. Roma enters with a stronger recent form and historic European experience, having been two-time runners-up and reaching quarter-finals recently, while Nice finished 35th in the inaugural league phase. This is the first group stage meeting in the 2025/26 Europa League season, with the match likely tense and tactical given the level of competition.
Key Factors to Consider
- Nice's recent form is mixed with a 3-1 home win against Auxerre balanced by losses like 1-4 at Brest and 1-3 at Le Havre in Ligue 1. Their European form includes a 0-2 loss to Benfica in Champions League qualifiers. Roma shows a more consistent form, with key wins against Lazio (1-0) and Bologna (1-0) in Serie A and a recent 1-1 friendly draw with Nice. Roma's strong defensive record with several clean sheets underlines their solid setup.
- The teams played a friendly in July 2022 that ended in a 1-1 draw at Allianz Riviera, indicating competitive parity. Overall historical data is sparse, but the teams are closely matched. Roma historically have the edge in European competition experience and have placed higher in rankings compared to Nice.
- There is no publicly available recent injury information for either team that significantly impacts the lineups for this match.
- Playing at home gives Nice a slight advantage, but Roma's experience in Europe and their recent form in Serie A offsets this. Weather and pitch conditions at Allianz Riviera are expected to be normal for September in France with no reported disruptions.
- Both teams are highly motivated to start the Europa League group stage strongly. Roma, with their history and ambition in European competitions, may have a slight psychological edge, while Nice will want to capitalize on home advantage and prove competitiveness in the league.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | AS Roma: 133, Nice: 212, Draw: 253 | AS Roma win | β β β ββ 68% |
| Spread | AS Roma: 0 -152, Nice: 0 122 | AS Roma to cover the spread (draw no bet) | β β β ββ 65% |
| Over/under | Over 2.5: -113, Under 2.5: -115 | Under 2.5 goals | β β β ββ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | AS Roma 12% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2.5 12% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 12% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 14% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
AS Roma is favored to win due to better recent form, European experience, and defensive solidity, but Niceβs home advantage and attacking potential could produce a close and competitive scoreline.
Predicted Score: 1-1