Match Analysis: Orlando City SC vs Sporting Kansas City – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-08-16
- Time: 11:30 PM UTC
- Location: Exploria Stadium, Orlando, USA
Game Overview
Orlando City SC, currently 4th in the MLS standings, hosts Sporting Kansas City, who sit 13th. Orlando City is favored given recent form, home advantage, and league position.
Key Factors to Consider
- Orlando City SC has a better recent record with 8 wins, 7 losses, and 0 draws, scoring an average of 1.62 goals per game with a strong defense conceding around 1.33 goals per game. Sporting Kansas City has a similar goals-per-game rate but is struggling with a lower win percentage at 31%.
- Last season's direct matches favored Orlando City. Historical H2H data show Orlando Cityβs dominance both home and away against Kansas City.
- No major injuries reported for either side affecting key starters, suggesting both teams near full strength.
- Match played at home for Orlando City at Exploria Stadium, benefiting from familiar conditions and crowd support. No notable external disruptions.
- Orlando City is competing higher in standings with strong motivation to secure playoff positioning. Sporting Kansas Cityβs motivation is lower due to mid-table relegation threat being less immediate.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Orlando City SC -234, Sporting Kansas City 510, Draw 410 | Orlando City SC | β β β β β 78% |
Spread | Orlando City SC -1.5 103, Sporting Kansas City +1.5 -137 | Orlando City SC -1.5 | β β β β β 70% |
Over/under | Over 3.5 -103, Under 3.5 -128 | Under 3.5 | β β β ββ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Orlando City SC -7% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 3.5 7% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 3.5 at 7% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 8.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Orlando City SC to win on the moneyline, covering the -1.5 spread, with a match total under 3.5 goals.
Predicted Score: 2-0