Match Analysis: Alavés vs Levante – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-08-16
- Time: 7:30 PM UTC
- Location: Estadio de Mendizorroza, Vitoria-Gasteiz, Spain
Game Overview
Alavés hosts Levante in an opening La Liga clash where Alavés is slightly favored based on recent form and historical performance. Levante has struggled against Alavés historically and carries lower win probabilities according to available data.
Key Factors to Consider
- Alavés shows stronger recent form and home advantage with a higher expected win probability (~49.6%) versus Levante (~23.5%), while draws sit around 32%. Levante has been less consistent.
- Alavés historically outperforms Levante, with previous meetings showing Alavés as favorites and stronger in direct confrontations.
- No critical injury information available indicating major absences for either team, suggesting near full-strength squads.
- No significant external disruptions such as travel fatigue or extreme weather reported for the match day.
- Both teams start the season eager for points, but Alavés' home advantage and recent stability give them a motivational edge.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Alavés: 1.19, Levante: 2.65, Draw: 2.10 | Alavés | ★★★★☆ 73% |
Spread | Alavés: -0.25 -115, Levante: +25 -105 | Alavés -0.25 | ★★★☆☆ 68% |
Over/under | Over: 2 – 1.05, Under: 2 – 1.25 | Under 2 | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Alavés 20% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 2 8% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Alavés at 20% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 17.2% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Alavés to win on the moneyline, covering the -0.25 spread, and match finishing under 2 goals.
Predicted Score: 1-0