Match Analysis: Fluminense vs Fortaleza – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-08-16
- Time: 7:00 PM UTC
- Location: Estádio do Maracanã, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
Game Overview
Fluminense, currently ranked 7th, hosts Fortaleza, ranked 18th, in a key Brasileirão Série A match. Fluminense has shown stronger recent form and better home results, while Fortaleza struggles with consistency and lower league placement.
Key Factors to Consider
- Fluminense boasts a solid recent run with 4 wins and 1 draw in last 5 matches, scoring an average of 1.4 goals per match and conceding 1.2. Fortaleza’s recent form is weaker, with 3 wins, 2 draws, and no losses, but lower confidence in away matches and a lower average of 0.6 points per match against Fluminense historically.
- In the past 19 encounters, Fluminense leads with 9 wins versus Fortaleza’s 6, and 4 draws. Since 2024, Fortaleza has won more recent direct clashes, but Fluminense still holds a historical edge especially at home. Recent H2H show mixed results but Fluminense is favored in home strategy.
- No significant injury reports affecting starting lineups for either side immediately preceding this match, implying both teams can field near-full strength squads.
- Home advantage for Fluminense at the iconic Maracanã with strong fan support and no notable weather or travel disruptions expected. Fortaleza faces a long away trip and less supportive atmosphere.
- Fluminense sits comfortably mid-table seeking points to strengthen top-table positioning, enhancing motivation. Fortaleza fights to avoid relegation, which motivates urgency but may risk defensive lapses under pressure.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Fluminense -135, Fortaleza 395, Draw 250 | Fluminense | ★★★★☆ 75% |
Spread | Fluminense -0.75 -102, Fortaleza +75 -118 | Fluminense -0.75 | ★★★★☆ 70% |
Over/under | Over 2.25 -110, Under 2.25 -110 | Under 2.25 | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Fluminense 8% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 2.25 24% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.25 at 24% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 26.5% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Fluminense to win on the moneyline, cover -0.75 spread, and match to go under 2.25 goals
Predicted Score: 2-0