Match Analysis: Baltimore Orioles vs New York Yankees – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-21
- Time: 5:36 PM UTC
- Location: Oriole Park at Camden Yards, Baltimore, MD
Game Overview
The Baltimore Orioles host the New York Yankees in an AL East division game. The Orioles enter with a 73-82 record, positioned fifth in the AL East, while the Yankees hold an 87-68 record, second in the same division. Baltimore starts RHP Grayson Bradish (1-1, 2.45 ERA), facing Yankeesβ RHP Cliff Schlittler (3-3, 3.41 ERA). This match is crucial for the Yankees looking to maintain division positioning, while the Orioles aim to improve their standings in the closing part of the regular season.
Key Factors to Consider
- The Yankees have shown stronger overall performance this season with better standing (87-68) compared to the Oriolesβ 73-82. The Oriolesβ starting pitcher Bradish has a strong ERA (2.45) suggesting quality pitching at home, whereas Schlittler (3.41 ERA) has been a solid but less effective option. Recent head-to-head series leads suggest Yankees hold the advantage.
- The Yankees lead the current series 2-1 against the Orioles. Historically, the Yankees have had the upper hand in recent matchups particularly due to stronger offensive production and depth on pitching.
- No specific injuries reported for either key rosters in available data; both teams appear to have regular lineups and pitching staffs intact for this game.
- The game is played at Oriole Park at Camden Yards, a stadium known for relatively balanced pitcher-hitter dynamics. Weather and external conditions are normal with no adverse factors reported. The gameβs timing and environment favor the home Orioles slightly, but Yankee experience and depth balance this advantage.
- Yankees are highly motivated to secure a division win and strengthen playoff positioning. Orioles, out of contention for playoffs, may be focusing on player development and home performance pride.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Baltimore Orioles: +114, New York Yankees: -134 | New York Yankees | β β β β β 75% |
| Spread | Baltimore Orioles: -1.5 @ -137, New York Yankees: +1.5 @ +114 | New York Yankees -1.5 | β β β ββ 65% |
| Over/under | Over 8.5: -105, Under 8.5: -115 | Over 8.5 runs | β β β ββ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | New York Yankees -6% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 8.5 7% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Over 8.5 at 7% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 7.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Considering pitching matchups, current form, and standings, the New York Yankees are favored to win, though the Orioles' home pitching and resilience make a close game likely.
Predicted Score: New York Yankees 6 – Baltimore Orioles 4