Match Analysis: Brisbane Broncos vs Dolphins – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-08-16
- Time: 7:30 AM UTC
- Location: Suncorp Stadium
Game Overview
Queensland derby between Brisbane Broncos and Dolphins at Suncorp Stadium, featuring two closely matched sides battling for finals positioning in Round 24 of the 2025 NRL season.
Key Factors to Consider
- Broncos are 6th with patchy recent form, hit by key injuries to Adam Reynolds, Ezra Mam, and Selwyn Cobbo; Dolphins sit 8th, also reeling from a heavy loss but motivated to bounce back.
- Broncos lead head-to-head 4-1 including a 20-12 win in Round 4; Dolphins had a dominant 40-6 win late last year.
- Broncos missing key halves Reynolds and Mam (likely season-ending), Cobbo also injured; Dolphins missing Herbie Farnworth but have Kenny Bromwich returning.
- Both teams share Suncorp Stadium as home ground, neutralizing home advantage; electric stadium atmosphere expected with split crowd support.
- Broncos aiming to salvage top-four hopes despite injuries; Dolphins seek immediate rebound from recent heavy defeat amid strong coach motivation.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Brisbane Broncos: -141, Dolphins: 126, Draw: 2000 | Brisbane Broncos | β β β ββ 66% |
Spread | Broncos -2.5 -115, Dolphins +2.5 -115 | Broncos -2.5 | β β β ββ 60% |
Over/under | Over 49.5 -115, Under 49.5 -115 | Under 49.5 | β β β ββ 58% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Brisbane Broncos 13% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 49.5 8% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Brisbane Broncos at 13% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 18.1% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Despite the Broncos' injury setbacks, their defensive discipline and home familiarity give them a slight edge in a tightly contested match. Expect a close, low-scoring game with Broncos narrowly prevailing.
Predicted Score: Brisbane Broncos 24 – 20 Dolphins