Match Analysis: Torino vs Atalanta BC – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-21
- Time: 1:00 PM UTC
- Location: Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino
Game Overview
Torino and Atalanta BC face off in Serie A Round 4 at Torino's home ground. Both teams have shown mixed form recently and have a balanced, competitive history, making this match unpredictable. Torino seek to improve a winless home streak in their last four matches, while Atalanta remain strong away with an unbeaten run in four games.
Key Factors to Consider
- Torino have 4 wins, 4 draws, and 2 losses in their past 10 home matches, scoring 1.0 goals and conceding 0.8 on average. They are currently 10th in Serie A but have struggled for consistency. Atalanta hold an impressive away record with 7 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss in their last 10 away games, averaging 2.5 goals scored and only 0.5 conceded, currently ranked 8th in the league.
- In 36 historical meetings, Atalanta holds a slight edge with 14 wins, Torino 13 wins, and 9 draws. Goals scored stand at 60 for Atalanta and 53 for Torino. At Torino's home stadium, the recent encounters are balanced, with Atalanta winning 4 of the last 7 matches there compared to Torino's 3 wins. The last home meeting ended in a 2-1 Torino victory.
- Torino have key injuries to Zanos Savva, Adam Masina, and Perr Schuurs. Atalanta contend with a longer list of absentees including Giorgio Scalvini, Sead Kolasinac, Γderson, Charles De Ketelaere, Gianluca Scamacca, and Mitchel Bakker.
- Both teams enter this match following contrasting recent results: Torino recovered from a heavy 0-5 loss to Inter by securing points in two consecutive matches, while Atalanta rebounded from a strong 4-1 Serie A win but suffered 0-4 defeat in the Champions League. Weather and pitch conditions at Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino are standard for September with no adverse effects reported.
- Torino are motivated to end their home winless streak and consolidate mid-table stability. Atalanta aim to maintain their strong away record and recover morale after a heavy international competition setback, seeking improved consistency in Serie A.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Atalanta BC: 122, Torino: 230, Draw: 230 | Atalanta BC to win | β β β ββ 65% |
| Spread | Atalanta BC -0.25: -110, Torino +25: -110 | Atalanta BC -0.25 | β β β ββ 60% |
| Over/under | Over 2.25: -105, Under 2.25: -115 | Over 2.25 goals | β β β ββ 55% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Atalanta BC 18% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 2.25 11% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Atalanta BC at 18% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 14.5% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Given Atalanta's superior away form and stronger offensive output, coupled with Torino's recent struggles at home and multiple injuries, a narrow away win or a close draw is likely. However, Torino's resilience at home and motivation to break their winless streak could limit Atalanta's dominance.
Predicted Score: 1-2