Match Analysis: Cremonese vs Parma – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-21
- Time: 1:00 PM UTC
- Location: Stadio Giovanni Zini, Cremona, Italy
Game Overview
Cremonese and Parma face off in a Serie A match where Cremonese are currently 3rd in the league standings, coming off a strong start including a notable win over AC Milan. Parma rank 19th and have struggled with away form and goal-scoring efficiency, failing to win away matches recently and scoring rarely.
Key Factors to Consider
- Cremonese have accumulated 7 points from 3 matches, showing strong defensive discipline and effective scoring, including a recent 2-1 victory over AC Milan. Parma have lost 2 out of 3 matches with 1 draw, scoring generally no more than 1 goal per match and struggling to convert chances, especially on the road.
- Historically, Cremonese hold an advantage in previous encounters, winning about half of their last 12 matches against Parma. Parma have struggled to break Cremoneseβs defense in recent meetings.
- No specific injury data is provided in the sources for either team; however, this could influence lineup and tactics if available closer to match day.
- The match is played at Cremoneseβs home stadium, Stadio Giovanni Zini, where they have demonstrated strong and organized play especially in defense, often limiting opportunities for their opponents.
- Cremonese are motivated to maintain their impressive start to potentially move top of the table, while Parma are aiming to turn around a poor start to the season and secure their first win.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Cremonese: 1.64, Parma: 1.83, Draw: 2.12 | Cremonese win | β β β β β 72% |
| Spread | Cremonese: -118, Parma: -102 | Cremonese 0 spread (win or draw) | β β β ββ 68% |
| Over/under | Over 2.25: -105, Under 2.25: -115 | Under 2.25 goals | β β β ββ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Cremonese 27% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2.25 22% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Cremonese at 27% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 16.3% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Cremonese are favored to win or at least avoid defeat due to their strong form, home advantage, and Parma's poor away performance and low goal-scoring efficiency. The match is expected to be tight and low scoring, likely decided by one goal.
Predicted Score: 1-0