Match Analysis: San Jose Earthquakes vs St. Louis City SC – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-21
- Time: 2:30 AM UTC
- Location: PayPal Park, San Jose, USA
Game Overview
San Jose Earthquakes host St. Louis City SC in an MLS regular season match at PayPal Park. San Jose is favored but has recent losses, while St. Louis won their last game away. Both teams have offensive capabilities but San Jose holds a higher league standing and home advantage.
Key Factors to Consider
- San Jose Earthquakes hold a 9-8-13 record with 35 points but lost their last two matches, including a 4-2 loss to LAFC where they dominated possession. St. Louis City SC has a 6-7-17 record with 25 points, winning their previous 2-0 away game. San Jose has strong attacking players like Cristian Arango (12 goals) and Joao Klauss (9 goals). St. Louis features Marcel Hartel and Conrad Wallem contributing offensively.
- This is the second league meeting this season between the teams, with St. Louis City winning the first matchup. Historically, San Jose usually shows better stats at home but recent form favors St. Louis.
- No concrete recent injury reports were found for key players; expecting near full-strength squads for both sides.
- The match kicks off at San Joseβs home stadium which can influence the game with crowd support. The game will be broadcast globally via MLS Season Pass. Weather and pitch conditions are not noted as issues.
- San Jose aims to bounce back from back-to-back losses to secure playoff positioning, while St. Louis City looks to continue their recent positive momentum and upset a higher-ranked opponent on the road.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | San Jose Earthquakes: -133, St. Louis City SC: 295, Draw: 330 | San Jose Earthquakes to win | β β β β β 70% |
| Spread | San Jose Earthquakes: -0.5 -139, St. Louis City SC: +50 104 | San Jose -0.5 | β β β ββ 65% |
| Over/under | Over 3.5: -120, Under 3.5: -110 | Over 3.5 goals | β β β ββ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | San Jose Earthquakes 2% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 3.5 1% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: San Jose Earthquakes at 2% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 2.1% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
San Jose Earthquakes are predicted to win with a moderately high confidence due to home advantage, stronger squad statistics, and motivation to overcome recent losses. Expect a competitive game with multiple goals scored but San Jose to edge a victory.
Predicted Score: 3-2