Match Analysis: San Diego State Aztecs vs California Golden Bears – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-21
- Time: 2:30 AM UTC
- Location: Snapdragon Stadium, San Diego, California
Game Overview
The California Golden Bears (3-0) visit the San Diego State Aztecs (1-1) in a Week 4 NCAA football game. Cal enters undefeated and is a strong favorite against San Diego State, who lost their last game decisively. The Golden Bears have shown solid offense and defense, while the Aztecs have struggled on the road this season.
Key Factors to Consider
- California is 3-0 with a recent 27-14 win over Minnesota, demonstrating balanced scoring and solid defense. San Diego State is 1-1, having opened with a 42-0 win but recently lost 36-13 to Washington State, indicating inconsistency and challenges against quality opponents.
- Recent direct matchup data is limited, but current form strongly favors California based on odds and season performance.
- No significant injury reports have been disclosed prior to the match affecting key players from either side.
- The game is played at Snapdragon Stadium, San Diego (home venue for Aztecs), which could provide a home field advantage, but California's momentum and odds strongly counterbalance this.
- California aims to maintain an undefeated record and solidify its standing; San Diego State seeks to bounce back after a recent loss, providing motivation but underscored by a talent gap.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | California Golden Bears: -625, San Diego State Aztecs: 455 | California Golden Bears to win | โ โ โ โ โ 86% |
| Spread | California Golden Bears: -14 (-112), San Diego State Aztecs: +14 (-108) | California Golden Bears -14 | โ โ โ โ โ 80% |
| Over/under | Over: 46.5 -115, Under: 46.5 -105 | Under 46.5 points | โ โ โ โ โ 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | California Golden Bears -0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 46.5 17% |
๐ฅ Best Value Pick: Under 46.5 at 17% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 18% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
California Golden Bears win convincingly, covering the spread and staying under the total points threshold.
Predicted Score: California Golden Bears 34 – San Diego State Aztecs 13