Match Analysis: Liberty Flames vs James Madison Dukes – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-20
- Time: 7:30 PM UTC
- Location: Williams Stadium
Game Overview
James Madison Dukes (1-1) host Liberty Flames (1-2) in this NCAAF Week 4 game at Williams Stadium. Both teams enter seeking to rebound from recent losses; James Madison lost their last game 28-14 against Louisville while Liberty has suffered back-to-back defeats including a 23-13 loss to Bowling Green. James Madison is favored as an 8.5-point favorite with an over/under set around 46.5 points.
Key Factors to Consider
- James Madison has split their first two games showing solid defense but suffered a notable home loss against Louisville. Liberty is struggling with a 1-2 record and back-to-back losses, struggling offensively. James Madison's defense and recent home form provide them an edge. Liberty may fight to keep the game close.
- No recent head-to-head results detailed for this season; historically, James Madison is favored in this matchup given current odds and form.
- No explicit injury reports available from data sources; assuming no major absences.
- Game played at James Madison's home stadium, Williams Stadium, providing a home field advantage. Both teams coming off defeats could motivate strong performances.
- James Madison aims to stabilize after a recent defeat and improve their conference standing. Liberty seeks to avoid a 3rd loss, fighting as underdogs.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | James Madison Dukes: -320, Liberty Flames: 255 | James Madison Dukes to win | โ โ โ โ โ 75% |
| Spread | James Madison Dukes: -8.5 -110, Liberty Flames: +8.5 -110 | James Madison covers -8.5 point spread | โ โ โ โโ 65% |
| Over/under | Over: 46.5 -114, Under: 46.5 -106 | Under 46.5 points | โ โ โ โโ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Liberty Flames -0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 46.5 17% |
๐ฅ Best Value Pick: Under 46.5 at 17% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 17.6% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
James Madison to win straight up and cover the 8.5 point spread, with a moderately high confidence. Total points likely to fall under 46.5 given both teams' recent defensive performances and scoring struggles.
Predicted Score: James Madison Dukes 27 – Liberty Flames 17