Match Analysis: Bologna vs Genoa – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-20
- Time: 1:00 PM UTC
- Location: Renato Dall'Ara, Bologna, Italy
Game Overview
Bologna, currently ranked 13th in Serie A, host Genoa, ranked 15th, at Renato Dall'Ara stadium. Both teams have displayed mixed form so far in the 2025/26 season, with Bologna holding a slight edge in recent head-to-head encounters. The match is expected to be competitive given Genoa's need for their first win and Bologna's intent to improve their position after some early season setbacks.
Key Factors to Consider
- Bologna have started the season with one win and two losses; their offense is led by Riccardo Orsolini, who is key with the most shots on target per match (1.1) and has contributed important goals recently. Genoa have yet to secure a win, struggling offensively despite six goals in their last five matches. Key creators include Morten Frendrup and Mikael Egill Ellertsson, with the latter matching Orsolini's shots on target per match.
- Recent meetings have seen balanced contests, with Bologna and Genoa splitting victories in the past season's two fixtures. The home advantage for Bologna at Renato Dall'Ara historically favors the home side, although Genoa have shown resilience away.
- No explicit injury reports are provided in the sourced data. Monitoring lineups closer to match time is advised for final injury updates.
- The match follows the international break, which may affect player fitness and team cohesion. Bologna recently lost to AC Milan 1-0, suggesting some defensive solidity but limited scoring capability. Genoa are under pressure to avoid an extended winless streak and may approach the game with greater urgency.
- Genoa's motivation to secure their first win of the season is high, which may lead them to play with more attacking intent. Bologna, while motivated to recover from early losses, may rely on home advantage and key attackers like Orsolini to regain momentum.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Bologna: -120, Genoa: 380, Draw: 235 | Bologna to win | β β β ββ 65% |
| Spread | Bologna -0.5: -120, Genoa +50: 100 | Bologna -0.5 | β β β ββ 62% |
| Over/under | Over 2 goals: -120, Under 2 goals: 100 | Under 2 goals | β β β ββ 58% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Bologna -1% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2 10% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 2 at 10% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 10% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Given Bologna's slightly stronger home form, key player impact, and balanced head-to-head history, Bologna are favored to win narrowly. Expect a closely contested match with a low to medium scoring outcome.
Predicted Score: 1-0