Match Analysis: Stoke City vs Derby County – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-08-09
- Time: 2:00 PM UTC
- Location: bet365 Stadium, Stoke, England
Game Overview
Stoke City hosts Derby County in a Championship match where Derby currently ranks 6th while Stoke City is 20th. Recent performances show Derby struggling to win recently but have better defensive stats compared to Stoke. Head-to-head records are quite balanced historically, but Derby has been slightly more effective overall.
Key Factors to Consider
- Derby County has drawn twice and lost thrice in their last 5 matches, scoring 1.2 goals per game and conceding 0.8, showing defensive solidity but a poor attacking run. Stoke City has two wins, one draw and two losses with fewer goals scored (0.8) and weaker defense (1.8 conceded per match).
- In 21 historical matches, Derby County has a slight edge with 9 wins vs. Stoke's 8. Recent matches have mostly ended in draws or narrow results, indicating closely matched teams.
- No specific injury reports were available from recent sources, suggesting relatively stable squads for both teams.
- Match played at Stokeβs home stadium bet365 Stadium, which may provide some advantage for the home team despite their lower league position.
- Derby County in higher league standing and aiming for promotion likely have stronger motivation compared to struggling Stoke City, who will be eager to gain early points to avoid relegation battles.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Derby County: 2.15, Stoke City: 1.29, Draw: 2 | Stoke City | β β β ββ 68% |
Spread | Derby County +25: -1.2, Stoke City -0.25: 1 | Stoke City -0.25 | β β β ββ 60% |
Over/under | Over 2: -1.18, Under 2: -1.02 | Under 2 goals | β β β ββ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Stoke City 26% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 2 19% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Stoke City at 26% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 20.1% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Derby County to draw or win with cautious defense; low scoring match anticipated.
Predicted Score: 1-0