Match Analysis: Middlesbrough vs Swansea City – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-08-09
- Time: 2:00 PM UTC
- Location: Riverside Stadium
Game Overview
Middlesbrough hosts Swansea City in the opening game of the EFL Championship season. Middlesbrough is favored due to strong past home form despite a winless pre-season, while Swansea struggles with form and defensive issues.
Key Factors to Consider
- Middlesbrough have won 5 of their last 6 home league matches last season but failed to win in their last 4 pre-season games. Swansea has been without a win in 4 games across all competitions including pre-season losses, showing poor recent form.
- Recent results show close matches: Swansea won 1-0 at home in March 2025, and Middlesbrough won 1-0 at home in August 2024, indicating a competitive matchup without clear dominance.
- No significant injury reports found impacting key players from either side, suggesting near-full strength squads.
- Middlesbrough will benefit from home crowd support at Riverside Stadium. No notable external disruptions reported.
- Both teams eager to start the season strongly but Middlesbroughβs desire to leverage their home advantage and defend their strong home record suggests higher motivation.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Middlesbrough 100, Swansea City 250, Draw 235 | Middlesbrough | β β β β β 70% |
Spread | Middlesbrough -0.5 @ 105, Swansea +50 @ -125 | Middlesbrough -0.5 | β β β ββ 65% |
Over/under | Over 2.5 -108, Under 2.5 -112 | Under 2.5 | β β β ββ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Middlesbrough 16% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 2.5 4% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Middlesbrough at 16% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 16% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Middlesbrough to win on the moneyline, covering the -0.5 spread, with a moderately low scoring game under 2.5 goals.
Predicted Score: 2-1