Match Analysis: Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-08-07
- Time: 1:40 AM UTC
- Location: Chase Field, Phoenix, Arizona
Game Overview
The San Diego Padres (63-51) face the Arizona Diamondbacks (54-60) with the Padres showing better recent form and superior pitching metrics, while Diamondbacks struggle overall but have home field advantage.
Key Factors to Consider
- The Padres rank 3rd in pitching ERA (3.56) and WHIP (1.21) and average 4.12 runs per game, though their batting is middle tier. Diamondbacks have a losing record and inconsistent offense but are playing at home.
- Recent matchups favor the Padres with a series win and a bounce back 10-5 extra-innings victory in the latest game.
- No major injuries reported for either team; starting pitchers identified but Padresβ starter Nestor Cortes has struggled with a 9.00 ERA in two starts this year.
- Game played at Chase Field, a hitter-friendly ballpark favoring offense. Weather and other conditions expected to be typical for Phoenix in August.
- Padres are pushing for divisional positioning and coming off recent series wins, showing higher motivation compared to the struggling Diamondbacks.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Arizona Diamondbacks: 129, San Diego Padres: -142 | San Diego Padres | β β β β β 72% |
Spread | Arizona Diamondbacks +1.5: -130, San Diego Padres -1.5: 110 | San Diego Padres -1.5 | β β β ββ 65% |
Over/under | Over 9.5: -105, Under 9.5: -115 | Over 9.5 | β β β ββ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | San Diego Padres -6% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Over 9.5 13% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Over 9.5 at 13% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 13.9% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
San Diego Padres to win straight up, Padres -1.5 spread, Over 9.5 total runs
Predicted Score: San Diego Padres 6 – Arizona Diamondbacks 4