Match Analysis: Burnley vs Liverpool – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-14
- Time: 1:00 PM UTC
- Location: Turf Moor
Game Overview
Burnley hosts Liverpool at Turf Moor in the English Premier League Round 4. Liverpool enters the match undefeated (3-0-0) with 9 points, showing strong offensive and defensive form. Burnley is more modest with 1 win, 0 draws, and 2 losses, holding 3 points. Liverpool is the clear favorite given their current form and historical dominance.
Key Factors to Consider
- Liverpool is in top form this season, undefeated in the league, and the highest scorers so far. Burnley has struggled but has the advantage of home ground. Liverpool's key players have contributed significantly with goals and assists, while Burnley lacks such firepower.
- Historically, Liverpool has dominated Burnley with 12 wins, 2 draws, and only 2 losses in their recent encounters. The last five matches all favored Liverpool decisively, with scores such as 3-1, 2-0, and 3-0 in their favor.
- No critical injury reports available for Liverpool affecting key players. Burnley's main attacking threat, Isak, is not expected to be fully fit or in form due to lack of game time.
- The match is played at Turf Moor, giving Burnley home advantage, but this is unlikely to offset Liverpool's superior squad and momentum. Weather and pitch conditions are expected to be normal with no reported concerns.
- Liverpool aims to extend their perfect start to the season and maintain top position, while Burnley looks for a breakthrough home win to improve their standing and confidence.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Burnley: 740, Liverpool: -319, Draw: 420 | Liverpool win | β β β β β 85% |
| Spread | Burnley: 1.5 -112, Liverpool: -1.5 -118 | Liverpool -1.5 spread | β β β β β 70% |
| Over/under | Over: 3.5 125, Under: 3.5 -167 | Under 3.5 goals | β β β ββ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Liverpool -1% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 3.5 -4% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Liverpool at -1% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Liverpool is strongly favored to win due to superior form, squad strength, and head-to-head advantage. Expected a controlling performance by Liverpool with Burnley likely to score fewer goals.
Predicted Score: Burnley 1 – 3 Liverpool