Match Analysis: Arizona State Sun Devils vs Texas State Bobcats – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-14
- Time: 2:30 AM UTC
- Location: Mountain America Stadium, Tempe, Arizona
Game Overview
The Arizona State Sun Devils (1-1) host the Texas State Bobcats (2-0) in a Week 3 NCAAF matchup. Arizona State enters as a heavy favorite after a close loss to Mississippi State, while Texas State comes off a high-scoring win against UTSA. The game is expected to be high scoring with a total over/under around 59.5 points.
Key Factors to Consider
- Arizona Stateโs performance has been inconsistent with a 1-1 record, narrowly losing 24-20 to Mississippi State. Texas State is undefeated at 2-0, showing strong offensive capability especially through QB B. Jackson with 500 passing yards and 5 touchdowns in a recent game. Arizona State's offensive leader S. Leavitt is productive but has also had 3 interceptions. Running back performances are notable on both sides.
- No detailed recent head-to-head data was available, but Arizona State is favored heavily in point spreads and moneyline odds, indicating historical or perceived dominance over Texas State.
- No major injuries affecting key starters have been reported for either team ahead of this game.
- The game is played at Arizona Stateโs home stadium, giving them home-field advantage. The game time is late evening in the Mountain Time Zone, which may influence player performance due to timing and travel for Texas State.
- Arizona State seeks to bounce back from an early season loss and maintain home dominance, while Texas State aims to extend their undefeated start and prove competitiveness against a Power Five school.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Arizona State Sun Devils: -720, Texas State Bobcats: 500 | Arizona State Sun Devils | โ โ โ โ โ 79% |
| Spread | Arizona State Sun Devils: -15.5 -115, Texas State Bobcats: +15.5 -105 | Texas State Bobcats +15.5 | โ โ โ โโ 65% |
| Over/under | Over: 59.5 -115, Under: 59.5 -105 | Over 59.5 | โ โ โ โ โ 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Arizona State Sun Devils -1% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 59.5 12% |
๐ฅ Best Value Pick: Over 59.5 at 12% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 14% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Arizona State is predicted to win a close contest by one possession, reflecting their higher talent level and home advantage but acknowledging Texas State's strong offensive potential.
Predicted Score: Arizona State Sun Devils 31, Texas State Bobcats 30