Match Analysis: D.C. United vs Orlando City SC – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-13
- Time: 11:30 PM UTC
- Location: Audi Field, Washington, D.C., USA
Game Overview
D.C. United will host Orlando City SC in an MLS regular season match at Audi Field. Orlando City SC is currently one of the stronger teams in the league, with a substantially better record and more points than D.C. United. The match will test D.C. United's ability to challenge a playoff-contending Orlando side, with Orlando motivated to maintain their form and possibly avenge a recent heavy loss.
Key Factors to Consider
- D.C. United has a record of 5 wins, 9 draws, and 15 losses with 24 points, reflecting a struggling season. Orlando City SC stands much stronger with 13 wins, 8 draws, 7 losses and 47 points. Orlandoβs attack is led by players like M. Ojeda (14 goals), M. Pasalic (11 goals), and L. Muriel (9 goals), indicating strong offensive capability. D.C. United has struggled with consistency and offensive outputs in past matches.
- The historical matchup favors Orlando City, with recent results indicating they are the superior side. Orlando City recently defeated D.C. United with a significant margin of 4 goals in their last encounter, showing dominance. The home advantage for D.C. United offers a mitigating factor but does not significantly close the gap in quality.
- Orlando City SC will miss defender A. Herrera due to a suspension from yellow card accumulation. Other squad injuries have not been prominently reported. D.C. United does not have significant injury news reported for this match, but the overall squad depth concerns remain.
- The match at Audi Field provides home support for D.C. United, which could influence performance. Travel and schedule congestion do not appear to heavily impact either squad. Media comments from Orlandoβs coach indicate the team is focused and recovering key players like Duncan who may influence upcoming matches positively.
- Orlando City SC is motivated to build on their strong season and consolidate playoff positioning. D.C. United is motivated to upset one of the top teams at home and gain momentum to escape the bottom of the eastern conference standings.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | dc_united: 216, orlando_city_sc: 110, draw: 275 | Orlando City SC win | β β β β β 72% |
| Spread | dc_united: -0.5 @ -139, orlando_city_sc: +50 @ 105 | Orlando City SC to cover -0.5 | β β β ββ 68% |
| Over/under | over_2.5: -159, under_2.5: 118 | Over 2.5 goals | β β β ββ 64% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Orlando City SC 9% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 2.5 -2% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Orlando City SC at 9% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 8.4% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Orlando City SC is favored to win due to superior recent form, quality of squad depth, and strong offensive record despite missing A. Herrera. D.C. Unitedβs home advantage and motivation to rebound provide some competitiveness but are unlikely to prevent an away victory.
Predicted Score: Orlando City SC 3 – 1 D.C. United