Match Analysis: Corinthians vs Fortaleza – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-08-03
- Time: 7:00 PM UTC
- Location: Corinthians home stadium
Game Overview
The match features Corinthians hosting Fortaleza in the Brazil Campeonato. Corinthians have a historical edge and slightly better recent home form, while Fortaleza struggle away but showed resilience in some recent losses.
Key Factors to Consider
- Corinthians average 1.26 goals per home game in 2025, with over 1.5 goals scored in around 77% of home matches. Fortaleza average 1.38 goals per away game, with 68% of their away matches seeing over 1.5 goals. Both teams tend to have moderate scoring games with relatively frequent 1-0 or low-scoring results.
- In 22 meetings, Corinthians won 12 matches, Fortaleza 5, and 5 ended in draws. Recent direct matches show a low frequency of both teams scoring (no BTTS in last 5 matches). Corinthians have the home advantage historically.
- No specific injury data available from search results; assume typical squad strength for both teams.
- Corinthians are motivated playing at home with a good historical record. No known adverse external factors influencing this match.
- Corinthians are motivated to consolidate home advantage and improve standings, while Fortaleza look to break poor away form, likely playing cautiously.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Corinthians: -120, Fortaleza: 370, Draw: 240 | Corinthians | ★★★★☆ 72% |
Spread | Corinthians -0.5: -118, Fortaleza +50: -102 | Corinthians -0.5 | ★★★☆☆ 68% |
Over/under | Over 2 goals: -122, Under 2 goals: 102 | Under 2 goals | ★★★☆☆ 64% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Corinthians 6% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 2 25% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2 at 25% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 24.7% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Corinthians to win on moneyline, covering -0.5 spread, and under 2.5 goals total
Predicted Score: 1-0