Match Analysis: Fluminense vs Grêmio – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-08-03
- Time: 12:00 AM UTC
- Location: Estádio do Maracanã, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
Game Overview
Fluminense hosts Grêmio in a Brasileirão Betano clash with both teams showing mixed form but Fluminense holding home advantage and a higher league standing (6th vs 11th). Historically, Grêmio has more wins in direct encounters but recent results show close competitive matches with a trend of draws lately.
Key Factors to Consider
- Fluminense averages 1.60 goals per match at home, with 76.19% of home games having over 1.5 goals; Grêmio averages 1.44 goals per match away, with 82.35% of away games over 1.5 goals. Overall scoring suggests a moderately attacking game.
- Across 52 matches, Grêmio leads with 25 wins to Fluminense's 13, while 14 ended in draws. Recent streak shows two consecutive draws, indicating closely matched contests.
- No specific injury data provided, but assume typical squad availability for both sides given current information.
- Playing at Maracanã gives Fluminense a strong home support advantage; weather and pitch conditions are standard for Rio in August.
- Fluminense, being higher in the table, has motivation to secure points at home to maintain or improve league standing, whereas Grêmio may be motivated to upset higher-ranked opponents and climb from 11th
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Fluminense: -125, Draw: 250, Grêmio: 370 | Fluminense | ★★★★☆ 70% |
Spread | Fluminense -0.5: -120, Grêmio +50: 100 | Fluminense -0.5 | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Over/under | Over 2: -118, Under 2: -102 | Over 2 goals | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Fluminense 3% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Over 2 2% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Fluminense at 3% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 3.2% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Fluminense to win on the moneyline and cover the -0.5 spread; expect a moderately high scoring game over 2 goals.
Predicted Score: 2-1