Match Analysis: New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-07-31
- Time: 5:06 PM UTC
- Location: Yankee Stadium, New York
Game Overview
The New York Yankees host the Tampa Bay Rays in a late July MLB matchup. The Yankees enter favored on the moneyline with solid home performance, while the Rays are slight favorites on the spread, sending Ryan Pepiot against Marcus Stroman in a crucial game with playoff implications.
Key Factors to Consider
- Yankees have a 59-49 overall record and strong home record of 33-22, showing recent momentum by winning three of their last four games. Rays sit at 54-55 overall and 23-27 on the road, struggling with consistency and appearing as sellers at the deadline.
- In the current series, Rays won the opener 4-2 but Yankees bounced back winning the next two games including an extra-innings victory. Historically, the Yankees generally perform better at home in this matchup.
- No significant injury reports for key players impacting pitching or lineup depth for either team at this time.
- Playing at Yankee Stadium favors the home team, with favorable weather conditions expected. The pitching matchup is critical with Stroman favored to keep runs low, while the Rays' Pepiot has had mixed recent outings.
- Yankees motivated by recent series win and stronger playoff positioning; Rays motivated but appear less consistent and have been sellers at trade deadline which may impact morale.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Yankees -116, Rays -102 | Yankees | β β β β β 70% |
Spread | Yankees +1.5 -184, Rays -1.5 +152 | Yankees +1.5 | β β β β β 75% |
Over/under | Over 8.5 -115, Under 8.5 -105 | Under 8.5 | β β β ββ 68% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | New York Yankees 12% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 8.5 17% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 8.5 at 17% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 18% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Moneyline: Yankees to win; Spread: Yankees +1.5; Over/Under: Under 8.5 runs
Predicted Score: Yankees 4 – Rays 3