Match Analysis: Preston North End vs Middlesbrough – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-13
- Time: 11:30 AM UTC
- Location: Deepdale, Preston, England
Game Overview
Preston North End hosts Middlesbrough in an EFL Championship fixture at Deepdale. Middlesbrough currently leads the Championship table, while Preston sits mid-table in 9th position. Both teams have shown contrasting form, with Middlesbrough boasting a very strong defensive record and recent winning momentum, whereas Preston has mixed results especially at home.
Key Factors to Consider
- Preston has a balanced recent form with 4 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses over their last 10 matches, averaging 1 goal scored and conceding just above 1 per game. At home, their scoring rate is higher (1.3 goals/game) but they concede significantly more (1.8 goals/game). Middlesbrough is top of the table with solid defensive stats, having kept the most clean sheets (3) and scoring 7 goals in their last 5 matches. Middlesbrough players like Delano Burgzorg and overall team defense stand out.
- Last season, Preston North End and Middlesbrough met twice in the Championship, with closely contested matches. Historical head-to-head results have been competitive. Middlesbrough's current superior league standing suggests a psychological edge in this fixture.
- Preston faces multiple injuries with key players such as Alfie Devine (muscle), Brad Potts (muscle), Harrison Armstrong (thigh, doubtful), Jordan Thompson (leg), Milutin Osmajic (rib), Robert Brady (calf), and Will Keane (muscle) all sidelined or doubtful. Middlesbrough injury status is not prominently reported, suggesting a fitter squad.
- The match is played at Deepdale, where Preston has struggled defensively. Weather and pitch conditions are not specified but will likely favor a physical and tactical game from both sides. Crowd support may slightly benefit Preston at home.
- Middlesbrough, as league leaders, will aim to maintain momentum and consolidate their position. Preston needs points to climb from mid-table and will be motivated to leverage home advantage despite recent defensive frailties.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Middlesbrough: 1.41, Preston North End: 1.88, Draw: 2.12 | Middlesbrough win | β β β β β 75% |
| Spread | Middlesbrough: -132, Preston North End: 111 | Middlesbrough to cover the spread (0) | β β β β β 70% |
| Over/under | Over 2.25: -112, Under 2.25: -108 | Under 2.25 goals | β β β ββ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Middlesbrough 21% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2.25 16% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Middlesbrough at 21% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 14.5% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Middlesbrough is favored to win due to superior form, fewer injuries, and better league position. An away win or draw is the likely outcome, but Preston could exploit home chances if key players recover.
Predicted Score: 1-2