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Nathan Kelly vs. Frederik Dupras Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

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Match Analysis: Nathan Kelly vs Frederik Dupras – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-08-01
  • Time: 10:00 PM UTC
  • Location: Jim Whelan Boardwalk Hall, Atlantic City, NJ

Game Overview

Nathan Kelly and Frederik Dupras face off in a featherweight bout as part of the 2025 PFL World Tournament Finals. Both fighters have strong records with Kelly at 11-4 and Dupras at 8-2, competing for a place in PFL standing legitimacy.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Nathan Kelly holds a more experienced record with 15 fights compared to Dupras' 10, showing a solid winning percentage and experience in the PFL circuit. Recent form for both shows activity and competitive fights, but Kelly's experience edges Dupras.
  • No previous documented head-to-head matches between Nathan Kelly and Frederik Dupras, rendering this a fresh competitive encounter.
  • No reported injuries for either fighter ahead of this bout, indicating both will enter the fight in optimal physical condition.
  • The fight takes place at a neutral but high-profile venue in Atlantic City during a major PFL event, which does not financially or geographically favor either fighter.
  • Both fighters are motivated by tournament progression and significant prize money; however, Kelly’s slight edge comes from having competed longer in PFL with more experience in high-stakes matches, potentially increasing his composure under pressure.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Nathan Kelly: -150, Frederik Dupras: +125 Nathan Kelly ★★★★☆ 72%
Spread Nathan Kelly -1.5 rounds -140, Frederik Dupras +1.5 rounds +120 Nathan Kelly -1.5 rounds ★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under Over 2.5 rounds -110, Under 2.5 rounds -110 Under 2.5 rounds ★★★☆☆ 63%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Nathan Kelly -0%
Spread N/A
Over/Under N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: Nathan Kelly at -0% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Nathan Kelly to win on the moneyline

Predicted Score: Nathan Kelly wins by decision or late finish within 3 rounds


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Nathan Kelly vs. Frederik Dupras Prediction

Match Analysis: Nathan Kelly vs Frederik Dupras – Prediction Match Details Date: 2025-08-01 Time: 10:00 PM UTC Location: Jim Whelan Boardwalk Hall, Atlantic City, NJ Game Overview Nathan Kelly and Frederik Dupras face off in a featherweight bout as part of the 2025 PFL World Tournament Finals. Both fighters have strong records with Kelly at […]

August 1, 2025 Frederik Dupras MMA/Boxing Nathan Kelly

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Elizeu Zaleski vs. Neil Magny Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

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Match Analysis: Elizeu Zaleski vs Neil Magny – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-08-02
  • Time: 12:00 AM UTC
  • Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Game Overview

Veteran welterweights Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos and Neil Magny face off in a UFC Fight Night bout at UFC Apex. Zaleski is the favorite, known for his finishing ability and higher striking volume, while Magny is a methodical fighter with a strong wrestling and clinch game, favoring decisions.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Zaleski comes in with a record of 25-9-1, connecting on 4.26 significant strikes per minute with a 41% accuracy and a 56% strike defense. Magny holds a 29-14-0 record, landing fewer strikes at 3.43 per minute but with higher 46% accuracy and stronger defense, allowing only 2.48 strikes per minute.
  • No recorded previous fights between these two fighters; thus, direct H2H data is not available.
  • No current injury reports or publicized fitness concerns for either fighter at fight week.
  • Fight is at UFC Apex, a familiar venue for both; no travel concerns noted. The fight date allows full training camp completion.
  • Both fighters are veterans likely motivated to secure a high-profile win at UFC Fight Night to maintain relevance in the welterweight division. Zaleski’s recent form and finishing upside add extra incentive.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Elizeu Zaleski: -198, Neil Magny: 164 Elizeu Zaleski ★★★☆☆ 68%
Spread Elizeu Zaleski -3.5: -110, Neil Magny +3.5: -120 Elizeu Zaleski -3.5 ★★★☆☆ 60%
Over/under Over 2.5 rounds: -180, Under 2.5 rounds: 140 Under 2.5 rounds ★★★☆☆ 57%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Elizeu Zaleski -7%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Under 2.5 37%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 37% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 26.3% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos to win by decision

Predicted Score: Elizeu Zaleski wins by unanimous decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)


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Piera Rodriguez vs. Ketlen Souza Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

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Match Analysis: Piera Rodriguez vs Ketlen Souza – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-08-02
  • Time: 12:00 AM UTC
  • Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Game Overview

The women's strawweight bout features Piera Rodriguez (10-2) versus Ketlen Souza (15-5), both orthodox fighters standing 5'3" and fighting at 115 lbs. Rodriguez has a slight reach disadvantage but superior defense and efficiency in significant strikes. Souza is more aggressive and lands more significant strikes per minute but takes more damage as well.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Rodriguez has a 10-2 record with strong defensive metrics, absorbing 2.63 significant strikes per minute and preventing 57% of strikes. Souza, with a 15-5 record, lands 4.92 significant strikes per minute but also takes 4.46, showing a high-risk style.
  • No prior bouts between Rodriguez and Souza, so no direct matchup history.
  • No reported injuries for either fighter leading into the bout.
  • Fight is at UFC Apex in Las Vegas, a neutral venue with no clear travel or altitude advantage; both fighters appear equally acclimated.
  • Rodriguez aims to continue her momentum and prove dominance after strong performances. Souza's aggressive style and higher volume striking suggest a motivation to impose pressure and secure a decisive win.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Piera Rodriguez -225, Ketlen Souza +185 Piera Rodriguez ★★★★☆ 72%
Spread Piera Rodriguez -3.5 (120), Ketlen Souza +3.5 (-165) Piera Rodriguez -3.5 ★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under Over 2.5 (-375), Under 2.5 (270) Under 2.5 rounds ★★★★☆ 70%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Piera Rodriguez -2%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Under 2.5 166%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 166% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 61.6% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Piera Rodriguez to win on the moneyline

Predicted Score: Piera Rodriguez wins by decision or late stoppage within 3 rounds


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Tatsuro Taira vs. Hyun Sung Park Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

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Match Analysis: Tatsuro Taira vs Hyun Sung Park – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-08-02
  • Time: 12:00 AM UTC
  • Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas, Nevada

Game Overview

This Flyweight UFC main event pits Tatsuro Taira, a highly skilled 25-year-old with a 16-1 record, against the undefeated 29-year-old Hyun Sung Park from South Korea, who is stepping in on short notice. Taira has more octagon experience and reach advantage, while Park carries a very high finishing rate and remains undefeated.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Taira has fought at a higher level with recent experience against top-tier fighters like Brandon Royval but comes off a split decision loss. Park is undefeated (10-0) with a 90% finishing rate, showing explosiveness and strong submission skills but less UFC experience.
  • No previous head-to-head encounters. This will be their first matchup.
  • No reported injuries for either fighter; Park is stepping in on short notice but appears healthy.
  • The fight is at UFC Apex, which is neutral ground for both fighters. Park is short-notice replacement, which may affect conditioning or strategy.
  • Park is motivated to capitalize on the sudden opportunity to break into the UFC flyweight spotlight, while Taira seeks to rebound from his last loss to restore his rise to the top ranks.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Taira -355, Park +280 Tatsuro Taira ★★★★☆ 72%
Spread Taira -5.5 (-195), Park +5.5 (+140) Tatsuro Taira -5.5 ★★★☆☆ 68%
Over/under Over 3.5 (-105), Under 3.5 (-125) Under 3.5 rounds ★★★☆☆ 65%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Tatsuro Taira -9%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Under 3.5 8%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 3.5 at 8% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 10% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Moneyline: Tatsuro Taira to win. Spread: Tatsuro Taira to win by more than 5.5 points (dominant decision or finish). Over/Under: Under 3.5 rounds.

Predicted Score: Taira wins by unanimous decision or late stoppage before round 4


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Karol Rosa vs. Nora Cornolle Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

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Match Analysis: Karol Rosa vs Nora Cornolle – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-08-02
  • Time: 12:00 AM UTC
  • Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Game Overview

Karol Rosa, a 30-year-old with a record of 18-7-0, faces Nora Cornolle, 35 years old with a 9-2-0 record, in the UFC Apex. Both fighters compete in the bantamweight division with nearly identical reach and stance, making this a close stylistic match.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Karol Rosa has a higher output of significant strikes landed per minute (6.22) compared to Cornolle (3.07), but absorbs more strikes per minute (4.84 vs. 1.91). Rosa connects on 55% strike accuracy while Cornolle is nearly as accurate at 54%. Cornolle has a stronger defensive percentage, blocking 62% of opponent strikes compared to Rosa's 49%.
  • No direct head-to-head matchups available, but stylistic metrics indicate Rosa is the aggressor with higher volume striking, while Cornolle relies more on defensive counters.
  • No reported injuries affecting either fighter leading into the bout.
  • Fight takes place at UFC Apex in Las Vegas, a neutral venue without home advantage for either fighter. Both fighters are experienced and will likely have full training camps.
  • Karol Rosa aims to maintain momentum and extend a significant winning streak, adding to a larger fight total. Nora Cornolle, the underdog, is motivated to prove herself against a top-ranked opponent and improve her professional record.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Karol Rosa: -185, Nora Cornolle: +154 Karol Rosa ★★★★☆ 75%
Spread Karol Rosa -3.5: 1.40, Nora Cornolle +3.5: 1.95 Nora Cornolle +3.5 ★★★★☆ 70%
Over/under Over 2.5 rounds: -560, Under 2.5 rounds: +370 Under 2.5 rounds ★★★☆☆ 68%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Karol Rosa 0%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Under 2.5 206%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 206% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 55.5% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Karol Rosa to win by decision

Predicted Score: Karol Rosa wins by unanimous decision after 3 rounds


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Esteban Ribovics vs. Elves Brenner Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

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Match Analysis: Esteban Ribovics vs Elves Brenner – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-08-02
  • Time: 12:00 AM UTC
  • Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Game Overview

Esteban Ribovics (-250 favorite) and Elves Brenner (+205 underdog) face off in a UFC lightweight bout. Ribovics is a precise, high-volume striker with a solid defense, while Brenner is a versatile fighter with strong grappling and finishing ability. Both fighters are 5'10" with Ribovics having slightly shorter reach (69" vs 72") but superior striking volume (8.08 vs 3.99 significant strikes per minute). Ribovics has a 14-2 pro record to Brenner's 16-5, both with 3-2 UFC records. Brenner is coming off two losses and will be highly motivated to avoid a third, while Ribovics looks to rebound after a close split decision loss.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Ribovics is an aggressive striker landing over 8 significant strikes per minute, with strong defense allowing fewer hits (5.92 absorbed per min). Brenner lands fewer strikes (3.99 per min) but with higher accuracy (47%), and has a solid takedown and submission game.
  • No known previous direct matchup.
  • No reported significant injuries for either fighter, both seem to be in peak condition.
  • Fight takes place at UFC Apex, a familiar venue with no travel disadvantage. Brenner’s recent two-fight losing streak adds pressure to perform; Ribovics is experienced with close fights.
  • Brenner faces career risk with a potential third consecutive loss in a very deep lightweight division, possibly increasing desperation to finish. Ribovics wants a definitive win after recent split decision losses, likely leading to aggressive strategy aimed at clear victory.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Esteban Ribovics: -250, Elves Brenner: +205 Esteban Ribovics ★★★★☆ 72%
Spread Esteban Ribovics -3.5: -135, Elves Brenner +3.5: +100 Esteban Ribovics -3.5 ★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under Over 1.5 rounds: -270, Under 1.5 rounds: +200 Over 1.5 rounds ★★★★☆ 70%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Esteban Ribovics -3%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Over 1.5 1%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 1.5 at 1% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 3.8% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Esteban Ribovics to win on the moneyline, covering the -3.5 spread, with the fight going over 1.5 rounds.

Predicted Score: Esteban Ribovics via decision or late finish in round 2 or 3


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Rodolfo Vieira vs. Tresean Gore Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

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Match Analysis: Rodolfo Vieira vs Tresean Gore – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-08-02
  • Time: 12:00 AM UTC
  • Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas

Game Overview

Rodolfo Vieira, a highly skilled Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu specialist and 35-year-old orthodox fighter, faces Tresean Gore, a younger 31-year-old switch fighter known for his striking, in a middleweight UFC bout at UFC Vegas 108.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Vieira holds a superior career record (10-3) compared to Gore (6-3) and demonstrates higher striking accuracy (55% vs 46%) and better defensive metrics, allowing fewer significant strikes per minute (4.40 vs 8.16). Gore shows durability but less effective defense.
  • No previous head-to-head matchup between Vieira and Gore, making this their first encounter.
  • No publicly reported injuries for either fighter leading into the bout, indicating both athletes should be at full health.
  • The fight takes place at UFC Apex in Las Vegas, a familiar venue for Vieira with possibly minimal travel disruption; Gore may have less experience fighting at this location but no clear disadvantage.
  • Vieira, at 35, aims to reinforce his UFC standing and capitalize on his grappling dominance before potential age regression, whereas Gore, younger and termed 'Mr. Vicious,' seeks to build momentum ascending the division.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Rodolfo_Vieira: -198, Tresean_Gore: 164 Rodolfo Vieira ★★★★☆ 78%
Spread Rodolfo_Vieira_-3.5: -140, Tresean_Gore_+3.5: 100 Rodolfo Vieira -3.5 ★★★★☆ 70%
Over/under over_1.5: -145, under_1.5: 114 Over 1.5 rounds ★★★☆☆ 60%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Rodolfo Vieira -2%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Over 1.5 -2%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 1.5 at -2% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Rodolfo Vieira to win via submission or decision

Predicted Score: Vieira wins by submission or decision after 2-3 rounds


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Kevin Vallejos vs. Danny Silva Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

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Match Analysis: Kevin Vallejos vs Danny Silva – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-08-02
  • Time: 12:00 AM UTC
  • Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas

Game Overview

Kevin Vallejos, a 23-year-old featherweight with a 15-1 record, faces Danny Silva, a 28-year-old with a 10-1 record. Vallejos is favored with odds around -425 to -440, while Silva is the underdog at +330. Vallejos is shorter (5'7") but slightly younger, with a good defensive rate, while Silva is taller (5'11") and lands more significant strikes per minute but absorbs more as well.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Vallejos has a higher win count and demonstrated a better defensive fight style, absorbing fewer strikes per minute (5.70 vs 7.96). Silva lands more strikes per minute (7.36) but is less defensively sound. Vallejos' recent form shows strong consistency and a higher finishing rate.
  • No known prior matchups between the two fighters, making direct H2H data unavailable.
  • No reported injuries to either fighter going into the bout, both appear fully prepared.
  • Fight takes place at UFC Apex in Las Vegas, a standard environment with no altitude or extreme conditions favoring either fighter.
  • Vallejos enters as a young rising contender aiming to cement his status, likely increasing motivation. Silva, with a slightly older age and fewer fights, is motivated to upset the favorite but may face pressure against the favored Vallejos.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Kevin Vallejos -425, Danny Silva +330 Kevin Vallejos ★★★★☆ 78%
Spread Kevin Vallejos -3.5 (-225), Danny Silva +3.5 (165) Kevin Vallejos -3.5 ★★★★☆ 70%
Over/under Over 2.5 (-110), Under 2.5 (-120) Under 2.5 rounds ★★★☆☆ 65%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Kevin Vallejos -9%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Under 2.5 10%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 10% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 12% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Kevin Vallejos to win by decision

Predicted Score: Kevin Vallejos wins by unanimous decision


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Rafael Estevam vs. Felipe Bunes Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

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Match Analysis: Rafael Estevam vs Felipe Bunes – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-08-02
  • Time: 12:00 AM UTC
  • Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Game Overview

Rafael Estevam (13-0) is an undefeated up-and-coming fighter with a strong striking defence and efficient significant strike accuracy, facing veteran Felipe Bunes (14-7) who has more striking volume but less defensive prowess. Estevam's youth, defensive skills, and technical precision make him a strong favorite, while Bunes' experience and aggression represent a threat.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Estevam maintains an undefeated record (13-0) showing consistent dominance with a 57% striking accuracy and solid defense, absorbing only 2.94 significant strikes per minute. Bunes, with a 14-7 record, delivers high output at 4.49 significant strikes per minute but absorbs 7.86 strikes, indicating potential defensive vulnerabilities.
  • No previous head-to-head matchups between Rafael Estevam and Felipe Bunes have occurred, making this a fresh competitive encounter.
  • No reported injuries or fitness concerns for either fighter as of the fight date, suggesting both competitors are at full capacity.
  • The fight takes place at UFC Apex in Las Vegas, an environment where Estevam has performed comfortably in past bouts. No adverse travel or acclimation factors noted.
  • Estevam aims to preserve his undefeated record and solidify his rising contender status, providing high motivation. Bunes seeks to revitalize his career with a win against a top prospect, bringing strong motivation despite being the underdog.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline home: -550, away: 410 Rafael Estevam ★★★★☆ 82%
Spread home: -195, away: 140, line: 3.5 Rafael Estevam -3.5 ★★★★☆ 75%
Over/under over: -154, under: 120, line: 2.5 Under 2.5 rounds ★★★★☆ 70%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Rafael Estevam -8%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Under 2.5 28%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 28% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 23% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Rafael Estevam to win decisively on the moneyline, covering the -3.5 spread, with a fight likely finishing under 2.5 rounds.

Predicted Score: Estevam wins by TKO late in Round 2


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Rinya Nakamura vs. Nathan Fletcher Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

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Match Analysis: Rinya Nakamura vs Nathan Fletcher – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-08-03
  • Time: 12:00 AM UTC
  • Location: UFC Vegas 108, Las Vegas, NV (Presumed)

Game Overview

The bantamweight bout at UFC Vegas 108 features Rinya Nakamura, a rising Japanese fighter with a strong recent record and UFC experience (9-1 overall, 3-1 UFC), against Nathan Fletcher, a solid but less dominant competitor (9-2 overall, 1-1 UFC). Nakamura is favored heavily due to superior technical grappling, consistent recent form, and better UFC performances.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Nakamura has shown steady improvement in UFC competition, with 3 wins and only 1 loss, demonstrating strong grappling skills and finishing ability. Fletcher holds a respectable 9-2 but has struggled in UFC bouts, with a 1-1 UFC record.
  • No prior head-to-head meeting between Nakamura and Fletcher exists, so predictions rely on comparative skill analysis and recent performance.
  • No publicly known injuries impacting either fighter leading up to the bout.
  • Fight taking place on prelims card in a major UFC event; both fighters motivated but Nakamura appears more focused on climbing UFC rankings.
  • Nakamura is highly motivated to secure a decisive win to boost his UFC standing and career trajectory. Fletcher aims to rebound after mixed UFC results but is an underdog here.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Rinya Nakamura: -425, Nathan Fletcher: 330 Rinya Nakamura ★★★★☆ 78%
Spread Rinya Nakamura -3.5 (-165), Nathan Fletcher +3.5 (120) Rinya Nakamura -3.5 ★★★★☆ 72%
Over/under Over 2.5 (-220), Under 2.5 (170) Under 2.5 Rounds ★★★☆☆ 65%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Rinya Nakamura -4%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Under 2.5 76%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 76% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 44.4% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Rinya Nakamura to win via moneyline

Predicted Score: Rinya Nakamura wins by decision or stoppage before round 3


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