Match Analysis: Baltimore Orioles vs Toronto Blue Jays – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-07-29
- Time: 10:36 PM UTC
- Location: Oriole Park at Camden Yards, Baltimore, MD
Game Overview
The Baltimore Orioles face the Toronto Blue Jays in Baltimore for the second game of their series. Baltimore, with a 48-58 record, has gained momentum with three consecutive wins, including an 11-4 victory over Toronto. Toronto, standing at 63-44, enters after two straight losses following an 8-1 hot streak. Baltimoreβs Charlie Morton starts pitching while Toronto's starter is currently undisclosed.
Key Factors to Consider
- Baltimore has surged recently, tallying 34 runs in the past three games and winning three straight. Toronto has lost two straight games, allowing 21 runs combined, but had been dominant before that with an 8-1 record. Overall, Toronto holds the better season record and is stronger against the run line historically.
- Recent head-to-head trends favor Toronto covering the spread 4-1 in their last 5 versus Baltimore. Baltimore is only 1-4 ATS in last 5 meetings. However, Baltimore won the last meeting convincingly 11-4.
- No significant injury reports impacting starting lineups or pitching staffs for either team noted just prior to the game.
- Game played at Baltimore's Camden Yards, a moderately hitter-friendly park. Weather and other conditions are standard for late July, no extreme external factors reported.
- Baltimore plays with motivation to maintain momentum and improve a losing season; Toronto seeks to stop a brief skid to stay on pace in a playoff push.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Baltimore Orioles: -102, Toronto Blue Jays: -116 | Baltimore Orioles | β β β ββ 67% |
Spread | Baltimore Orioles -1.5 (-170), Toronto Blue Jays +1.5 (140) | Baltimore Orioles -1.5 | β β β ββ 62% |
Over/under | Over 10 (-105), Under 10 (-115) | Over 10 | β β β ββ 58% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Baltimore Orioles 5% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Over 10 7% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Over 10 at 7% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 7.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Bet on Baltimore Orioles moneyline for value with confidence the momentum and home pitching will overcome Toronto's favored status.
Predicted Score: Baltimore Orioles 6, Toronto Blue Jays 4