Match Analysis: Colorado Rockies vs San Diego Padres – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-07
- Time: 7:11 PM UTC
- Location: Coors Field, Denver, Colorado
Game Overview
The San Diego Padres visit the Colorado Rockies at Coors Field for the final game of a three-game MLB series on September 7, 2025. The Padres enter as clear favorites given their stronger season performance and pitching advantage, while the Rockies struggle with a poor record and high ERA pitching staff.
Key Factors to Consider
- The Padres have a 76-65 record and are favored in this game. Their starting pitcher Dylan Cease (6-11, 4.81 ERA) has a decent winning record when starting. The Rockies have a poor 40-101 record, with a 23-51 home record and a pitching staff ERA of around 6.00. Starter Tanner Gordon (5-5, 6.07 ERA) has been shaky on the mound.
- This game is the third in a series tied 1-1. The Padres have won the latest matchup and generally perform better away against the Rockies, who struggle defensively at Coors Field.
- No specific injury updates available for this match. Both teams appear to be at full strength.
- Coors Field's high elevation is historically favorable for hitters, leading to higher scoring games. The total runs line is set high at 11.5, reflecting this. Weather or other conditions do not appear to be significant here.
- Padres, with playoff aspirations, have high motivation to secure a road series win. Rockies have little playoff hope this late in the season but may fight for pride in front of home fans.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Colorado Rockies: 188, San Diego Padres: -225 | San Diego Padres | β β β β β 75% |
| Spread | Colorado Rockies: +1.5 at 108, San Diego Padres: -1.5 at -130 | San Diego Padres -1.5 | β β β β β 70% |
| Over/under | over: -104, under: -118, line: 11.5 | Over 11.5 runs | β β β ββ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | San Diego Padres -5% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 11.5 8% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Over 11.5 at 8% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 8.2% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
San Diego Padres are predicted to win the match, likely covering the run line given superior pitching and overall team strength at this point in the season.
Predicted Score: San Diego Padres 7 – Colorado Rockies 4