Match Analysis: Cincinnati Reds vs New York Mets – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-07
- Time: 5:41 PM UTC
- Location: Great American Ball Park, Cincinnati, Ohio
Game Overview
The matchup pits the Cincinnati Reds (71-71) hosting the New York Mets (76-66) in a critical late-season MLB NL contest. The Reds, fighting to stay alive in the Wild Card race, have split their prior two games against the Mets this series. The Mets are currently second in the NL East, with strong offensive leaders like Pete Alonso and Juan Soto. Cincinnatiβs starting pitcher Hunter Greene is expected to take the mound against Metsβ Brandon Sproat, who is making his first appearance of the season.
Key Factors to Consider
- The Mets have a 76-66 record, with 3.93 ERA pitching staff and .252 team batting average, led by Alonso (33 HRs, 113 RBIs) and Soto (37 HRs, 92 RBIs). Mets have won 3 of last 5. The Reds stand at 71-71, relying on ace Hunter Greene, who has been dominant at home with multiple games of 7+ strikeouts and a solid K/BB ratio this season. Reds have won 8 of their last 9 day games after the previous day and have a good recent record versus the Mets.
- Recent series split 1-1 with Reds covering the run line in 6 straight games against the Mets. Mets have lost their last 6 day games versus NL teams. Reds have the edge at home in this matchup historically and recently.
- No specific current injuries reported for either team that would significantly impact starting lineup or pitching.
- Game at Great American Ball Park favored for hitters but Hunter Greene has been somewhat hittable there this season. Mets starter Sproat is making debut and has shown control issues at AAA, potentially impacting Metsβ pitching stability.
- Reds are desperate for a win to boost their Wild Card playoff chances. Mets look to maintain second place and momentum after some recent inconsistency. Redsβ urgency and home crowd support are key motivational factors.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Cincinnati Reds: -126, New York Mets: 108 | Cincinnati Reds Moneyline | β β β ββ 68% |
| Spread | Cincinnati Reds: -1.5 (+150), New York Mets: +1.5 (-182) | Cincinnati Reds -1.5 | β β β ββ 60% |
| Over/under | Over 8.5: -115, Under 8.5: -105 | Over 8.5 runs | β β β ββ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Cincinnati Reds 2% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 8.5 16% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Over 8.5 at 16% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 18.3% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Cincinnati Reds to win narrowly with a moderately high scoring game. Expect Redsβ Hunter Greene to leverage home advantage and Mets to produce runs given their offense but Metsβ pitching in debut may struggle.
Predicted Score: Reds 5 – Mets 4