Match Analysis: New York Yankees vs Philadelphia Phillies – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-07-27
- Time: 5:36 PM UTC
- Location: Yankee Stadium, The Bronx, New York
Game Overview
The Philadelphia Phillies visit the New York Yankees with the Phillies favored to win, having already taken the first two games of the series convincingly. Zack Wheeler starts for the Phillies and Carlos Rodon for the Yankees. The Phillies look to complete a series sweep at Yankee Stadium.
Key Factors to Consider
- Phillies have a strong season record of 60-44 and have won their last two games against the Yankees decisively (9-4, 12-5). The Yankees are 56-48 but have lost their last three games, including two against the Phillies, showing signs of recent offensive and pitching struggles.
- In this series, the Phillies hold a 2-0 lead with commanding wins. Historically, the Phillies' pitching and offensive execution has outmatched the Yankees in their recent encounters.
- The Yankees will be without star slugger Aaron Judge due to an elbow injury, significantly weakening their lineup against a top-tier Phillies starter. No major injuries reported for the Phillies.
- The game is played at Yankee Stadium under warm conditions with a light breeze and light rain, which could slightly suppress scoring but generally favors the home team.
- The Phillies are motivated to complete a sweep and maintain their momentum as a playoff contender, while the Yankees aim to avoid a series loss at home and rebound from a poor recent stretch.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Yankees +108, Phillies -126 | Philadelphia Phillies | β β β β β 78% |
Spread | Yankees +1.5 (-156), Phillies -1.5 (+130) | Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 | β β β β β 72% |
Over/under | Over 7.5 (-120), Under 7.5 (-102) | Under 7.5 | β β β ββ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Philadelphia Phillies 0% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 7.5 29% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 7.5 at 29% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 29.3% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Phillies to win outright on the moneyline, Phillies to cover the -1.5 runline, and the game to go under 7.5 total runs.
Predicted Score: Phillies 5 – Yankees 3