Match Analysis: New Mexico Lobos vs Idaho State Bengals – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-06
- Time: 7:05 PM UTC
- Location: University Stadium, Albuquerque, New Mexico
Game Overview
The New Mexico Lobos host the Idaho State Bengals in the Lobos' 2025 home opener. Both teams are coming off losses: New Mexico lost 34-17 against Michigan, while Idaho State fell 46-24 at Southern Utah. The Lobos have a strong recent home opener record as favorites, but have struggled against underdog teams and in September home games. The Bengals have offensive weapons but lost efficiency on third downs and penalties in their opener.
Key Factors to Consider
- New Mexico struggled offensively and defensively in their opener, being outgained 452-267 yards. Idaho State also gave up significant yardage (563 yards allowed) but had a relatively stronger passing game (Jordan Cooke 334 yards) despite a poor rushing attack and penalty issues.
- This is the fourth all-time meeting between New Mexico and Idaho State and the first since 1998, giving limited recent direct matchup data. New Mexico has historically dominated these encounters but current form is less favorable.
- No specific injury information was reported for either team prior to the game.
- New Mexico enjoys home crowd advantage at University Stadium, with a strong historical performance in home openers. The game will be televised on Altitude/MWN and broadcast on Lobo Radio Network.
- New Mexico is motivated to bounce back at home after a loss and maintain their strong home opener streak, while Idaho State seeks first win of the season and a road upset. The Bengals may exploit New Mexicoโs recent struggles to cover spreads and first-half performance against underdogs.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Idaho State Bengals: +440, New Mexico Lobos: -610 | New Mexico Lobos to win | โ โ โ โ โ 85% |
| Spread | Idaho State Bengals: +14.5 -112, New Mexico Lobos: -14.5 -108 | New Mexico to cover -14.5 spread | โ โ โ โโ 65% |
| Over/under | Over: 63.5 -110, Under: 63.5 -110 | Over 63.5 points scored in total | โ โ โ โ โ 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | New Mexico Lobos -1% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 63.5 34% |
๐ฅ Best Value Pick: Over 63.5 at 34% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 37% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
New Mexico is favored to win comfortably by a wide margin due to home advantage and a strong record as a favorite in home openers. However, Idaho Stateโs potential to cover the spread as the underdog suggests New Mexico may not dominate as heavily as the line implies.
Predicted Score: New Mexico Lobos 38 – 21 Idaho State Bengals