Match Analysis: Sport Recife vs Santos – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-07-26
- Time: 9:30 PM UTC
- Location: Estádio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho, Recife, Brazil
Game Overview
Sport Recife hosts Santos in a Brazilian Serie A match where Sport Recife is struggling with poor form and bottom of the table, while Santos has a slightly better record but still below mid-table. Both teams have defensive vulnerabilities and low scoring records recently.
Key Factors to Consider
- Sport Recife ranks 20th with 0 wins, 3 draws, and 10 losses, scoring 5 and conceding 21 goals in 13 games. Santos is 17th with 4 wins, 2 draws, and 8 losses, scoring 12 and conceding 17 in 14 games. Santos has shown more resilience and better recent form (WLWWL) compared to Sport Recife’s poor streak (LDLLL).
- In the last 8 head-to-head matches, both teams have 3 wins each and 3 draws, indicating balanced historical competitiveness.
- No specific injury information provided, assuming no major absences for key players in either team.
- The match is at Sport Recife's home ground, but their poor home form and defensive weakness reduce the typical home advantage.
- Sport Recife is desperate to avoid relegation, which may increase their motivation; Santos also seeks points to improve their precarious position but have shown more consistent performance.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Sport Recife: 1.55, Draw: 2.15, Santos: 1.9 | Santos | ★★★☆☆ 58% |
Spread | Sport Recife 0: -125, Santos 0: 105 | Sport Recife 0 spread (draw no bet) | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
Over/under | Over 2: -108, Under 2: -112 | Under 2 goals | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Santos 22% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 2 8% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Santos at 22% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 11.5% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Santos to win on the moneyline, Sport Recife to cover the spread push (0 handicap), and under 2 goals total.
Predicted Score: 0-1