Match Analysis: Mirassol vs Vitoria – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-07-26
- Time: 9:30 PM UTC
- Location: Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia
Game Overview
Mirassol hosts Vitoria in a Série A match where Mirassol exhibits strong recent home form and defensive solidity, while Vitoria struggles with away games and inconsistent offense.
Key Factors to Consider
- Mirassol has won 4 of their last 5 games, scoring an average of 1.8 goals and conceding only 0.2 per game. Vitoria has managed 1 win in their last 11 away matches with an average of 0.6 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per game.
- Recent head-to-head matches are balanced with each team having 1 win and 1 draw in their last 3 meetings. Historically low-scoring games, averaging around 1.67 total goals, with Mirassol tending to outperform Vitoria in home fixtures.
- No major injury reports available that would significantly affect the starting lineups of either side as of the current data.
- Match played at Mirassol's home ground where they have strong support and excellent defensive record; no notable external disruptions identified.
- Mirassol aims to maintain upward momentum and consolidate their position with strong home performances. Vitoria fights to escape their relegation zone but shows low confidence in away fixtures.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Mirassol: -115, Vitoria: 350, Draw: 245 | Mirassol | ★★★★☆ 78% |
Spread | Mirassol -0.5: -115, Vitoria +50: -105 | Mirassol -0.5 | ★★★★☆ 72% |
Over/under | Over 2: -120, Under 2: 100 | Under 2 | ★★★☆☆ 68% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Mirassol 12% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 2 20% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2 at 20% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 20% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Mirassol to win on the moneyline; Mirassol -0.5 on spread; Under 2 goals for over/under market
Predicted Score: 1-0