Match Analysis: Botafogo vs Corinthians – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-07-26
- Time: 9:30 PM UTC
- Location: Estádio Olímpico Nilton Santos
Game Overview
Botafogo, playing at home, has a slightly better head-to-head record against Corinthians, with 11 wins to Corinthians' 9 in recent history. Both teams have similar scoring averages, and recent matches have been low-scoring. Botafogo has won the last 2 direct encounters and holds a home advantage.
Key Factors to Consider
- Botafogo scores on average 1.16 goals per match at home this season, while Corinthians averages 1.20 goals per away match. Botafogo has shown stronger form at home with a good percentage of games going over 1.5 goals. Corinthians' away matches tend to have fewer total goals over 2.5.
- Out of 40 matches, Botafogo won 16, Corinthians 13, and 11 draws. Average goals per match in these H2H is roughly 2.6. Recent encounters favor Botafogo with two consecutive wins and a slight scoring edge.
- No specific injury information provided, but lineups are predicted to be close to full strength for both teams.
- The match is played at Botafogo's home stadium, giving them a tangible home field advantage. No adverse weather or travel issues reported.
- Botafogo sits higher in the league table and is motivated to maintain position, while Corinthians, lower ranked, may seek upset but have lacked recent strong away form.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Botafogo -160, Corinthians 500, Draw 275 | Botafogo | ★★★★☆ 78% |
Spread | Botafogo -0.75 (-122), Corinthians +75 (102) | Botafogo -0.75 | ★★★★☆ 72% |
Over/under | Over 2.25 (108), Under 2.25 (-128) | Under 2.25 | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Botafogo 1% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 2.25 10% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.25 at 10% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 13.4% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Botafogo moneyline
Predicted Score: 1-0