Match Analysis: Fortaleza vs Bragantino-SP – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-07-26
- Time: 9:30 PM UTC
- Location: Estadio Castelao, Fortaleza, Brazil
Game Overview
Fortaleza hosts Bragantino-SP in a tight Brazilian Serie A matchup, with early odds favoring the home side at Estadio Castelao.
Key Factors to Consider
- Fortaleza has shown slightly better form according to implied probabilities (45.8% win chance vs. Bragantino-SP's 28.6%)[1]. Home advantage in Brazil is significant, and Fortaleza’s Estadio Castelao is a notoriously tough venue for visiting teams.
- Recent H2H is evenly split, with both teams winning 5 of the last 11 encounters, but home/away splits lean moderately in Fortaleza’s favor[2]. High-variance recent matches, including a 2-0 away win for Fortaleza and a 2-1 home win for Bragantino-SP in the past year[2].
- No significant injury news reported. Lineups and late changes may adjust the final probability.
- No major external factors reported—no weather issues, scheduling congestion, or off-field drama.
- Both teams are mid-table with something to play for in a tightly packed Serie A. Fortaleza particularly motivated to capitalize on home advantage and solidify a top-half position.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Fortaleza +120, Bragantino-SP +240, Draw +230 | Fortaleza | ★★★★☆ 70% |
Spread | Fortaleza -0.25 -112, Bragantino-SP +25 -108 | Fortaleza -0.25 | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Over/under | Over 2.25 105, Under 2.25 -125 | Under 2.25 | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Fortaleza 1% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 2.25 8% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.25 at 8% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 10% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Expect a tight, competitive match with Fortaleza having a slight edge. The most likely scenario is a one-goal victory, with both teams contributing to goal flow.
Predicted Score: Fortaleza 1-0 Bragantino-SP