Match Analysis: Iowa State Cyclones vs Iowa Hawkeyes – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-06
- Time: 4:00 PM UTC
- Location: Jack Trice Stadium, Ames, Iowa
Game Overview
The No. 16 Iowa State Cyclones (2-0) host their in-state rivals, the Iowa Hawkeyes (1-0), in this highly anticipated Cy-Hawk rivalry game. Iowa State enters with a strong start and a potent aerial attack led by quarterback Rocco Becht, while Iowa leans on a bruising ground game featuring Xavier Williams. The game is expected to be tightly contested, with a likely close finish hinging on key plays late in the fourth quarter.
Key Factors to Consider
- Iowa State showcases efficient offense with 461 passing yards and 5 TDs from Becht, plus a solid running game. Iowa relies on powerful rushing (X. Williams with 122 yards and 1 TD) plus emerging dual-threat QB Mark Gronowski, adding a dynamic dimension to their attack.
- Historically, Iowa leads the series 47-24. However, recent meetings have been close, with three of the last five decided by a field goal or less. This rivalry is known for tight contests regardless of records.
- No significant injuries reported affecting starting quarterbacks or key offensive players for either team.
- Home field advantage for Iowa State at Jack Trice Stadium, known for an energetic atmosphere. Weather is not reported to be a major factor. The game will be broadcast on FOX, increasing exposure and pressure.
- Both teams highly motivated due to in-state rivalry and early season momentum. Iowa State aims to maintain its unbeaten record and national ranking, while Iowa looks to prove it can win in Ames and bounce back from their opener.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Iowa Hawkeyes: +140, Iowa State Cyclones: -166 | Iowa State to win | โ โ โ โโ 65% |
| Spread | Iowa Hawkeyes: 3 -102, Iowa State Cyclones: -3 -118 | Iowa State -3 | โ โ โ โโ 60% |
| Over/under | Over: 41.5 -112, Under: 41.5 -108 | Over 41.5 points | โ โ โ โโ 55% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Iowa State Cyclones 49% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 41.5 0% |
๐ฅ Best Value Pick: Iowa State Cyclones at 49% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 34.9% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Iowa State is favored to win by a narrow margin due to superior offense and home advantage. Expect a competitive game with Iowa utilizing a strong run game to keep it close, but Iowa State's balanced attack and experience should prevail in crunch time.
Predicted Score: Iowa State 27 – Iowa 24