Match Analysis: Toronto Blue Jays vs New York Yankees – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-07-23
- Time: 11:08 PM UTC
- Location: Rogers Centre, Toronto
Game Overview
The Toronto Blue Jays host the New York Yankees in a critical American League matchup. The Blue Jays are currently the hottest team in baseball with only four losses since June 29, while the Yankees rely on ace Max Fried, who has an impressive 11-3 record and a 2.43 ERA this season.
Key Factors to Consider
- Toronto Blue Jays have a strong recent form, losing only four games since late June, versus the Yankees who are solid but have shown recent vulnerability with Fried allowing 10 earned runs in his last 14 innings. The Blue Jays are 59-42 on the season, slightly better than the Yankeesβ 56-45.
- Max Fried is 3-0 with a 1.74 ERA in career games against the Blue Jays, but Chris Bassitt has been pitching excellently at home with a 2.53 ERA in 64 innings. Historical pitcher performance slightly favors Yankeesβ ace but Blue Jays' home pitching is strong.
- No significant injuries reported for either team impacting starting pitchers or lineup key players for this game.
- The game is played at Rogers Centre, a hitter-friendly park, which could boost run production. Weather conditions not reported as a factor.
- Blue Jays are motivated as the hottest team currently and eager to capitalize on home advantage; Yankees motivated to stay competitive in a tough division. The Blue Jaysβ recent winning streak adds a psychological edge.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Toronto Blue Jays +120, New York Yankees -142 | Toronto Blue Jays | β β β ββ 68% |
Spread | Toronto Blue Jays +1.5 -140, New York Yankees -1.5 +116 | Toronto Blue Jays +1.5 | β β β β β 72% |
Over/under | Over 8.5 -105, Under 8.5 -115 | Over 8.5 | β β β ββ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Toronto Blue Jays 21% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Over 8.5 13% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Toronto Blue Jays at 21% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 17.5% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Toronto Blue Jays moneyline
Predicted Score: Blue Jays 5 – Yankees 4