Match Analysis: Pittsburgh Pirates vs Detroit Tigers – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-07-23
- Time: 4:36 PM UTC
- Location: PNC Park, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
Game Overview
The Detroit Tigers (60-42) visit the Pittsburgh Pirates (41-61) with Detroit favored as the stronger team both statistically and in recent performance. Pittsburgh has shown some resilience in this series but overall struggles against favorites and on the moneyline.
Key Factors to Consider
- Detroit holds a superior 60-42 record, with a solid batting average (.249) and strong pitching staff ERA (~3.69). Pittsburgh is underperforming with a 41-61 record, a 3.87 ERA pitching staff, and lower offensive output. Detroit has won 65.6% of games when favored this season, while Pittsburgh wins under 40% as an underdog.
- Pittsburgh won the first two games of this series, scoring early and capitalizing on hitting. However, Detroit has generally performed better at run line and moneyline in this matchup historically and is the stronger overall team.
- No significant injury reports affecting starting pitchers or key hitters were noted for either side, indicating both teams are near full strength.
- The game takes place at PNC Park, home of Pittsburgh, which slightly favors Pirates offensively but Detroit has managed well in away games. Weather and other external conditions appear neutral.
- Detroit is motivated to maintain their strong record and playoff positioning, while Pittsburgh, as cellar dwellers, have less incentive outside pride, despite recent series wins.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Detroit Tigers -146 / Pittsburgh Pirates +124 | Detroit Tigers | β β β β β 75% |
Spread | Detroit Tigers -1.5 (114) / Pittsburgh Pirates +1.5 (-137) | Detroit Tigers -1.5 | β β β ββ 68% |
Over/under | Over 8.5 (-122) / Under 8.5 (100) | Over 8.5 runs | β β β ββ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Detroit Tigers -2% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Over 8.5 6% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Over 8.5 at 6% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 6.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Detroit Tigers to win on the moneyline, covering the run line of -1.5, and the game total to go over 8.5 runs.
Predicted Score: Detroit Tigers 6 – Pittsburgh Pirates 4