Match Analysis: Tampa Bay Rays vs Baltimore Orioles – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-07-20
- Time: 4:11 PM UTC
- Location: George M. Steinbrenner Field, Tampa, Florida
Game Overview
The Tampa Bay Rays (52-47) host the Baltimore Orioles (43-54) in the final game of the series. The Rays lead 2-0 in the series and aim to complete a sweep. The probable starting pitchers are Ryan Pepiot for the Rays, who holds a 6-7 record with a 3.38 ERA, and Trevor Rogers for the Orioles, with a 2-1 record and a stellar 1.53 ERA. The Rays are slight favorites at home, with moneyline odds around -126, while Orioles are underdogs at +108.
Key Factors to Consider
- The Rays have a better overall record and have dominated the Orioles in this series with two wins (11-1, 4-3). Tampa Bay's pitching and offense have been effective, whereas Baltimore's team offensive average is 4.10 runs per game ranked 22nd, and pitching struggles with a 4.99 ERA and 1.41 WHIP, ranking 27th in MLB.
- In series play, the Rays have been dominant, winning the first two games decisively and denying Baltimore a win in the series so far. During Ryan Pepiotβs starts, his team performs better as favorites (7-3) whereas when Trevor Rogers starts as an underdog, Orioles go 2-1.
- No major injury concerns reported affecting starting pitchers or key players for either team impacting this matchup significantly.
- Home field advantage for the Rays at George M. Steinbrenner Field, with the Rays more comfortable and motivated to complete the series sweep.
- Tampa Bay seeks to strengthen their playoff positioning with a sweep, while Baltimore aims to avoid a series whitewash and salvage momentum moving forward.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Baltimore Orioles: +108, Tampa Bay Rays: -126 | Tampa Bay Rays | β β β β β 72% |
Spread | Baltimore Orioles +1.5: -210, Tampa Bay Rays -1.5: 172 | Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 | β β β ββ 65% |
Over/under | Over 9: 100, Under 9: -122 | Under 9 | β β β ββ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Tampa Bay Rays 4% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 9 4% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Tampa Bay Rays at 4% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 5.1% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Tampa Bay Rays to win the match on the moneyline, cover the -1.5 run spread, and the total runs to go under 9.
Predicted Score: Tampa Bay Rays 5 – Baltimore Orioles 3