Match Analysis: Jim Crute vs Marcin Prachnio – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-07-19
- Time: 2:00 AM UTC
- Location: Smoothie King Center, New Orleans
Game Overview
Jimmy Crute faces Marcin Prachnio in a Light Heavyweight bout at UFC 318. Crute holds a younger profile with a record of 12-4-2, while Prachnio is the more experienced 37-year-old with a 17-8-0 record. Both fighters have comparable reach and weight, and similar striking accuracy, but Prachnio is slightly more active in significant strikes landed per minute.
Key Factors to Consider
- Crute has shown strong all-around skills with good striking accuracy (53%) and solid defense (42% strikes blocked). Prachnio lands more significant strikes per minute (5.57) and is a slightly better defender (54% strikes blocked). Crute’s recent form includes a majority draw in his previous fight, suggesting slight volatility. Prachnio has a longer career but may be impacted by age.
- No prior head-to-head fights reported between Crute and Prachnio.
- No reported injuries for either fighter going into this bout.
- The fight takes place at a neutral venue in New Orleans, which likely has no significant home advantage. Both fighters appear motivated by career advancement at UFC 318.
- Crute aims to rebound and improve after a recent draw, while Prachnio looks to capitalize on experience to extend his win record. Crute is younger, potentially giving him physical advantages in endurance and recovery.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Crute -325, Prachnio +260 | Jim Crute | ★★★★☆ 74% |
Spread | Crute -3.5 -195, Prachnio +3.5 +140 | Jim Crute -3.5 | ★★★☆☆ 68% |
Over/under | Over 2.5 rounds +124, Under 2.5 rounds -160 | Under 2.5 rounds | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Jim Crute -5% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 2.5 6% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 6% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 9% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Jimmy Crute to win by decision
Predicted Score: Jim Crute wins by decision, 3 rounds